Why Can't Nvidia Rise Despite Huang Ren-hao's "$1 Trillion" Call?

NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang announced the largest revenue outlook in history at the annual GTC conference, but failed to ignite the stock price. This reflects a deeper dilemma: when a company becomes large enough to shake up the global economic landscape, the market’s pricing logic for “good news” also changes.

On Monday, Huang announced during his GTC keynote that NVIDIA’s revenue visibility for the Blackwell and Rubin platforms exceeds $1 trillion, covering 2025 to the end of 2027. This figure doubles the $500 billion outlook he disclosed last fall at GTC in Washington. However, NVIDIA’s stock price remained almost unchanged after the speech, and on Tuesday, it further declined by 0.7%.

The market’s tepid response is not accidental. Analysts point out that the $1 trillion outlook offers limited upside compared to Wall Street expectations; meanwhile, NVIDIA’s size has grown so large that traditional valuation logic no longer applies. Coupled with macro headwinds, the stock is unlikely to find new catalysts for short-term gains.

Bright prospects, but doubts about exceeding expectations

Huang’s $1 trillion outlook is undoubtedly impressive in absolute terms, but compared to consensus on Wall Street, its upside potential is limited.

According to MarketWatch, Seaport Research analyst Jay Goldberg said the outlook “is impressive in absolute value,” but relative to Wall Street consensus, “upside is not significant.” FactSet data shows that the market consensus for NVIDIA’s data center revenue in 2027 is about $443 billion, and Huang’s $1 trillion only covers the Blackwell and Rubin platforms, excluding other data center products. This suggests total data center revenue could surpass that figure.

Stifel analyst Ruben Roy wrote in a report that “we believe Huang touched on a core issue discussed within the investor community, the updated backlog data is more about validation than raising existing expectations.” Roy maintains a buy rating on NVIDIA with a target price of $250.

Independent analyst Richard Windsor questioned in his Radio Free Mobile report whether better inference capabilities can truly translate into revenue, depending on whether data center operators can sustain higher earnings from expensive NVIDIA hardware. He pointed out that Blackwell was expected to bring similar economic benefits, but fierce competition led to falling compute prices, leaving revenue stagnant.

Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon takes a relatively optimistic view. In a Tuesday report, he noted that since the $1 trillion figure only includes Blackwell and Rubin, total data center revenue will exceed that number; additionally, “this guidance is just a snapshot at the current moment,” with seven quarters remaining until the end of 2027, leaving room for further revenue growth—something Huang himself hinted at during his speech.

Size dilemma: the law of large numbers begins to take effect

The deeper issue NVIDIA faces may not be the outlook itself, but that the company’s size has grown so large that the growth story becomes less capable of attracting funding.

Jay Goldberg stated in a Monday report, “NVIDIA has now grown large enough to start hitting the law of large numbers.” He pointed out that NVIDIA holds over 80% of the AI chip market, which “still is growing significantly,” but at this scale, “the path forward looks more challenging.” Competitors are actively positioning themselves, with Broadcom and AMD recently partnering with large-scale cloud customers on chip deals. “NVIDIA now has to work harder than ever to secure revenue.”

TD Cowen analyst Joshua Buchalter echoed similar sentiments. In a Monday report, he noted that NVIDIA’s market cap has exceeded $4 trillion, making its trading dynamics fundamentally different from other stocks. “The reality is, for a company with a market cap over $4 trillion, there are trading and capital flow patterns that neither we nor investors are used to.”

Buchalter said investors are looking for chip stocks with potential to double, and for NVIDIA to achieve that, its market cap would need to reach about $9 trillion—roughly the combined GDP of Germany and India. “We’ve repeatedly heard from investors that they believe companies in NVIDIA’s supply chain are more resilient and have greater upside potential than NVIDIA itself.”

Macroeconomic headwinds suppress, stock price remains range-bound

Beyond valuation challenges, worsening macro conditions continue to limit NVIDIA’s stock performance.

Some analysts note that NVIDIA’s stock has been stuck in the $180–$190 range since last summer. Initial concerns last year about the sustainability of AI infrastructure spending have been amplified by market risk aversion due to conflicts involving Iran, expectations of rate cuts, and recession fears, creating macro pressures that hinder the stock’s breakout.

Compared to historical reactions, NVIDIA’s response after this year’s GTC was notably weaker. Data from Dow Jones shows that after the 2024 and 2025 GTCs in March, NVIDIA’s stock rose 3.12% and 3.15% the next day, respectively; this time, the stock only rose 1.7% initially and then fell 0.7% on Tuesday.

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