【AI+Risk】Oak Capital Howard Marks: AI is Making the World More Difficult to Predict, Investors Underestimate AI Impact

SocialAnxietyStaker · 2026-03-18T03:32:51+00:00

Oaktree Capital co-founder Howard Marks points out that artificial intelligence is making markets harder to predict, and investors need to be cautious about AI's impact and potential risks. He emphasizes that past bubbles have largely stemmed from new technologies, and investors should be more inclined to directly purchase stocks of AI companies rather than merely borrowing.

SocialAnxietyStaker

2026-03-18 03:32:51

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Oaktree Capital Management Co-Founder Howard Marks stated that artificial intelligence (AI) is making the world more unpredictable than ever before.

Howard Marks said most investors make decisions based on their judgment of future trends, but that is far from enough. He pointed out that the power given to AI also makes it impossible to predict what it will or won’t do, and to what extent it will replace human jobs. AI has also raised concerns among investors about the private markets and their relative lack of transparency.

Howard Marks, with many years of experience, has witnessed the rise and fall cycles of many innovations. He said:

New things spark people’s imagination and are easy to promote to the public, but because they are new, people haven’t yet seen their flaws in practical applications. Historically, there has never been a steel bubble or a hamburger bubble. When bubbles do appear, they are often driven by new technologies or financial innovations, where people blindly follow based on certain promises, unaware of the potential risks.

He stated that people underestimate AI’s impact, citing the example of Jack Dorsey’s Block announcing layoffs of 4,000 employees last month, about half of its workforce:

How many people truly understand the seriousness of this?

Marks also said that instead of lending money to companies focused on AI, investors might find it more profitable to buy their stocks. “If you’re taking on the risks of the basic business model, shouldn’t you earn corresponding returns as an owner rather than as a fixed-income investor?”

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