Huatai Securities March FOMC Preview: Middle East Developments Do Not Impact Federal Reserve Guidance

GateUser-bd883c58 · 2026-03-18T03:12:07+00:00

Huatai Securities predicts that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged at the March FOMC meeting. Despite oil price increases caused by Middle East conflicts, this will not change the rate-cut guidance. Attention will be focused on Powell's views on the situation and his personal remarks.

GateUser-bd883c58

2026-03-18 03:12:07

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Why Has the Middle East Conflict Not Changed the Federal Reserve’s Rate Cut Path?

[Huatai Securities March FOMC Preview: Middle East Developments Do Not Currently Affect the Fed’s Guidance] China Securities Journal, March 18 — Huatai Securities pointed out that the Federal Reserve will announce its March policy decision in the early hours of March 19 (Thursday) Beijing time. Recently, the Middle East conflict has caused a significant rise in oil prices, and the market is watching whether the Fed will adopt a more hawkish stance due to potential stagflation risks. Huatai Securities believes that the Fed’s March meeting will keep interest rates unchanged, lower growth forecasts, and raise inflation forecasts, but the dot plot guidance for rate cuts will remain unchanged; attention will be on Powell’s comments regarding the impact of the Middle East situation and his statements about whether to stay on as a board member.

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