[Red Envelope] After the Two Sessions end, how to continue capturing the next theme in the market like electricity and stay "several steps" ahead of the market! Learn?

“The market is not gambling; it is a process of redistributing wealth based on each participant’s understanding of human nature.” “This is a market with no right or wrong, only winners and losers. Learning to accept loss is the prerequisite for enlightenment.” [Taogu Ba]

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Since the start of the New Year, the traditional golden spring market has still not arrived. Everyone’s expectations are now focused on the super market trend at the beginning of 2025. The only similarity with last year is the total transaction volume of 2 trillion, but other aspects are incomparable. The height of DS continuous boards in 2025 could reach the height of Hang Steel’s 10-board streak, whereas this year, the longest has been below 5 boards for a long time, with only Zhongnan Shares breaking this space on Friday.

Why is this year’s market so different from last year? Let Su Su review it for everyone. First, it’s a matter of sentiment. The 9.24 market in 2024 was too crazy! It led to new retail investors entering the market, and old investors would say online, “This stock is moving, sell quickly!” New investors heard, “Huh? This stock is about to start?” and rushed to buy. The market infused with new blood is more aggressive, and if you’re bold enough, you can win. So, under the lingering heat of the 9.24 sentiment, the trend continued.

Also, the Spring Festival holiday indeed caused DS to ferment unexpectedly, alarming hackers across the strait to suppress our DS. During the holiday, there was a surge in AI popularity—many AI tools like Qianwen, Ant A Fu, Doubao, and Yuanbao tried to become this year’s DS; it was a major hot topic during the New Year. Plus, robots making their first appearance on the Spring Festival Gala was a big deal, fueling the 2025 Spring Festival market.

Why can’t this year’s market break out? Has everyone thought about this?

Su Su can briefly summarize a few points.

1. The Middle East issue is quite serious; the first trading week after the Spring Festival has not started, and the “big event” has not yet happened. Once it does, the impact will last too long.

2. The Spring Festival theme fermentation was below expectations. When a trend really takes off, even pigs can fly.

3. Regulatory efforts have increased. Last year, some stocks moved abnormally, but the number of “black rooms” was pitifully small. Now, many stocks resist two layers of abnormality, and after the “Chen Xiaoqun Industry Chain” incident, the risk of black rooms has become even more exaggerated—Liou股份, for example, was about to be shut down before abnormal movement, and similar black warnings are everywhere. Compared to these, the most absurd is the unlimited continuation market started by Pingtan Development. Previously, Zhong Yida was a rare exception; after Pingtan Development, the unlimited mode was launched, which is an unbeatable, unresolvable move. Large funds definitely won’t take such risks; it’s clearly manipulated market behavior.

4. The prevalence of industry chains and quantitative trading has influenced the market! Our market’s quantitative trading is the most excessive—initially developed to increase liquidity, with a limit of 299 rules. Even the US stock market, with T+0 trading, doesn’t have such frequency. Now, quantitative trading has become the biggest speculative activity, conflicting with our current value investing principles. Therefore, a subsequent weakening trend is inevitable. Don’t doubt this; the current frenzy is driven by its value, and time will prove everything.

5. The ongoing Middle East issue continues to influence the market.

This is the current state of the market. Looking ahead to April, the “earnings disaster month,” the spring market is unlikely to have big themes. When markets are desperate, big players tend to band together for big gains. The principle that the riskier the fish, the more expensive it is, was already told to us by Strong Brother in 2024.

Electric power, strictly speaking, is the main theme for this year’s New Year. The surge in Hang Electric’s abnormal movement was completed before the New Year, reaching new historical highs and boosting the sector. Is everyone just realizing this now?

The electric power sector was initially defined by Su Su as a “safe haven” candidate, so it’s not hard to see that electric power is fundamentally a safe-haven, collective asset. The application of AI on the battlefield is still ongoing, and Chinese DNA’s fear of insufficient firepower is kicking in. The development of AI in the second half of the year is expected to be quite crazy. The US’s two wars this year, especially the “decapitation” role, clearly show that AI is not just a bubble; its battlefield role can deeply resonate with Chinese people. So, AI development must accelerate this year. Whether we admit it or not, our AI models and top-tier models still lag behind. Xiao Ma and Huang Renxuan both said that in the end, AI competition is about electricity. They are pushing for space-based power generation—don’t you see? So, the continuous computing power, as Xiao Ma predicted when he was about to go to space for power generation, already shows Su Su’s foresight, leading the market by several steps.

So, what’s the root cause? Why can electricity outperform aerospace and AI as this year’s New Year theme? It’s because of tangible, visible logic—not just imagination. This is also the fundamental shift from chasing concepts to value investing that Village Chief has been emphasizing. That’s why electricity can beat aerospace, space photovoltaics, AI, and even the recent “little dragon” (shrimp) sector.

What does electricity tell us? I’ll write it down because recently, whether in heat or interaction frequency, the market has been sluggish. Su Su’s main posts will be less frequent, and one day, I might even say goodbye to Taogu Ba. The initial purpose of coming here has been fulfilled; in today’s quant-driven market, daily reviews are less important—sometimes, the more effort, the more money lost. The support for Su Su staying on Taogu Ba is everyone’s recognition. Through our joint efforts, we’ve made it into the top 10 of the emerging list. Su Su is a nostalgic person—no more words. Back to the main point: take notes. Future educational posts will be fewer.

Imagination space will become worthless, especially for themes that are distant and highly speculative, like space photovoltaics. We haven’t even completed rocket recovery, so both cost and technology are far from realization. Commercial spaceflight now is bigger than space photovoltaics; tangible, logical reasoning will gradually be valued over time. Price hikes and restructuring are frequent methods to break the limit of continuous boards, so no matter how they rise, they won’t be labeled as hype. Without solid logic, relying solely on concepts—like “shrimp”—is unsustainable. Domestic “shrimp” sectors are based on different logic.

This section is short but valuable for those who understand—knowledge. Those who understand will naturally grasp what Su Su is saying. If you don’t, just note it down. With some market experience over time, you will understand at a certain point.

Wealth Freedom Project

Just kidding, a hundred million is enough to stop.

“Su’s Dragon Seeking Technique” training plan for this week is ready. Students eager to learn can start now. No trading system can handle the market’s endless changes; understanding the big picture and predicting the divine will are what should be done under dual pressure from regulation and quantification. Use change to adapt to market changes and protect yourself. Scroll to the end for surprises! Start learning quickly.

The solid logic of the electric power sector is essential and unavoidable for future AI development. A market dominated by quantification can’t keep strengthening on a single theme forever; it’s unrealistic to expect daily maximums. The Friday market was just a high-low switch. The extremity of quantification’s shakeout is well known. The speed of change in the founding of the nation is truly fast, so suffering losses isn’t scary—what’s scary is not gaining experience.

Enlightenment Stage
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1. Market analysis

No big surprises—looking at the next three years, the weekends will either intensify or open new situations. The Middle East issue remains unavoidable, so the market’s defensive stance is expected.

Actually, don’t rely on online media’s narratives; look at the most direct market signals—the attitude of funds proves everything. The oil forecast on Friday is just a glimpse; let the market gradually desensitize itself.

2. Sentiment analysis

Once the two-board space opens, it’s a new node. The two sessions are basically over. Usually, violent shakeouts like “failed conference bets” and “using the opportunity to shake out and accumulate” are just preparing for new trends. Everything is proceeding according to the script in Thursday’s main post. Just understand this point and follow the plan.

Relaxed Moment

Most dazzling MVP: Zhongnan Culture

Loser MVP: Green Power

Hot Sector Analysis

Electric Power
News: UK cancels 33 wind power component import tariffs; sector remains active.

Once again, the high-low cut in the sector is just a technical adjustment. The logic behind wind power is not very strong; funds see the breaking of the 5-board space as a node, just a sector adjustment. The future high-level re-accumulation still has good potential.
Popular stocks: Zhongnan Shares (5), Huadian Energy (4), Zhengzhou Coal & Electric (2), Dajin Heavy Industry (2), China Power Construction (1)

Chemicals
News: Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions cause energy and chemical prices to rise.

Like oil, the logic is price increase. The weekend’s fermentation was good and as expected, further intensifying. But a problem is that the Monday rebound and fall are not new; risk-averse rotation remains the main theme.
Popular stocks: Jinniu Chemical (3), Luhua Technology (2), Sanfang Port (2), Hongbaoli (1)

Misjudged, all efforts wasted!!!
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Downtrend phase**

Breaking the 5-board node means this high-low cut differs slightly from previous ones. The sustainability and recognition of funds won’t be poor. Based on weekend news, there’s still a risk of further correction. Looking at the past two weeks, the 4100 support remains strong, so tomorrow’s market is expected to V-shape, so don’t be scared—just wait for tomorrow morning.

Tomorrow’s plan

The high-low cut in the electric power sector is different from previous over-frequency cuts because it has support at key nodes. So, sustainability shouldn’t be a big issue. Some stocks not benefiting from wind power’s good news have more imagination. Currently, there are few options, so don’t overthink.

Quick Path to Thinking Improvement

1. Was Friday’s high-low cut in electric power the same as before?
   A. Same, a masterpiece of quantification
   B. Different, a product of sentiment cycle

2. Are the last two trading weeks in March still dominated by risk aversion?
   A. Yes
   B. No

There’s no definitive answer. To improve everyone’s understanding of the market, think more and leave comments. I will carefully review everyone’s answers and give a little red flower. No correct answer—just to encourage thinking and deepen market understanding, bringing everyone closer to enlightenment. Those who study this seriously every day are silent!

Ancient Wisdom Summary
1. Downtrend phase (Better to kill 1000 than miss 1): focus on defense, as this emotional stage’s defensive efficiency determines the offensive efficiency during the main rise. If the whole market is losing money, and we’re not, then our starting line for the main rise is “new highs,” while others are “breaking even.” Don’t tempt fate.
2. Oscillation phase (boring): watch for risks when rising too much, opportunities when falling too much; on the next day of a peak, reduce weak stocks and hold strong ones, avoid opening new positions.
3. Chaos phase (many “bad boys” and “green tea” stocks): quick rotation, small positions, quick in and out.
4. Main rise phase (everyone becomes stock gods—unlimited potential): just do it.
5. Other phases (uncertain): no solution, let the market decide.

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Why do I share?
Because I’ve been through the rain and want to hold an umbrella for others.
The pits I’ve stepped into, if someone can avoid one because of my words, it’s worth it.
And teaching is the best way to learn.
Every review, every Q&A, is me rethinking the logic.
You say I help others, but I’m also helping myself.

What is the top-level aesthetic that often aligns with Chen Xiaoqun?

1. Stock aesthetic

This year’s Mengwang Technology, Yu Sanxia A, Hengbao Shares, Great Wall Military Industry, Chengfei Integration, Pingtan Development, Hefei China, Aerospace Development, Luxin Venture Capital—all continuously recognized by the market.

2. Mainline prediction

The main themes this year have been predicted early, with no doubt about choosing the main line from many themes.

Check Su Shen’s predictions on sectors like DS, big consumption, stablecoins, chemicals, Yashui, military industry, robotics, Fujian, aerospace.

（Solemnly declare: The above content and responses are personal reviews, personal operation records, and personal opinions only for discussion; not investment advice or recommendations.)