CITIC Securities Futures: Agricultural Commodities Morning Report March 18

MaticHoleFiller · 2026-03-18T02:39:56+00:00

Corn prices experienced a slight decline but remained overall strong, warranting attention to policy and import changes; soybean meal market maintained steady prices supported by US market performance; egg market inventory levels are high with improving supply-demand dynamics; hog prices showed minor fluctuations with limited near-term improvement prospects, requiring focus on long-term capacity changes.

MaticHoleFiller

2026-03-18 02:39:56

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Corn: Neutral to Slightly Bullish

Market Performance: Yesterday, the May corn contract closed at 2,385 yuan/ton, down 0.21% for the day.
Spot and Channel Situation: Due to a sudden surge in vehicle arrivals, over 1,300 trucks arrived in Shandong, causing varied price adjustments across regions; China National Grain and Oil Reserve Corporation (CNGORC) has been actively stockpiling this week, with about 20% of remaining grain targeted for high-quality sources; no clear signs of inventory recovery in deep processing, and prices continue to be supported by low-level operation.
Market Focus & Summary: Limited residual grain in the grassroots combined with policy support, and external markets maintained high levels due to ethanol energy themes, leading to a short-term bullish trend in corn. Support levels are around 2,360 yuan/ton, with resistance at approximately 2,420 yuan/ton. Maintain a slightly bullish oscillation outlook. This week, focus on policy grain releases, wheat and other substitutes, and import price changes.

Soybean Meal: Neutral

President Trump invited farmers and biofuel producers to the White House for agricultural events next week, interpreted by the market as a bullish signal for U.S. biofuel policies, leading to a rebound in CBOT soybeans overnight. From a balance sheet perspective, if the U.S. soybean crushing scale for 2025/26 expands to around 2.75 billion bushels, even if subsequent exports face setbacks, ending stocks could fall below 300 million bushels, supporting a bottom range of 1100-1150 cents.
Despite a sharp decline in U.S. markets yesterday, the reduced purchase expectations caused by postponed meetings did not lead to a significant drop in soybean meal prices. On the contrary, before the Brazilian soybean shipment delays are disproved, soybean meal futures and spot prices remain relatively firm. Reuters reports that the Brazilian government plans to send officials from the Ministry of Agriculture to negotiate plant quarantine issues with China. Attention should be paid to Brazil’s shipping pace to China in March-April. If shipment delays are disproved, market valuation of soybean meal may adjust downward amid favorable crush margins and ample supply.

Summary: U.S. market stabilization provides some support to meal prices. Watch the May contract performance in the 3000-3100 yuan/ton range.

Eggs: Neutral

Main producing areas’ spot prices remain stable. Hebei Guantao’s spot price is 2.98 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. Despite high absolute stock levels, supply pressure persists, but the trend of low new production and accelerated culling is gradually establishing, with marginal improvement in supply-demand balance in Q2 2026. As capacity pressures ease, there may be structural buying opportunities within the year. Rising costs of corn and soybean meal have pushed the weekly cost of feed to about 3.11 yuan/jin, providing solid support for off-season contracts.

Summary: Short-term market adjustments may occur due to macro disturbances. Consider opportunistic long positions in late Q2 and Q3 peak season contracts.

Pork: Neutral

Live pig spot prices fluctuate slightly. Yesterday, the main producing areas’ average was 10.08 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous day. The June 2605 contract saw significant declines influenced by spot prices. Weak demand causes slow sales and passive weight gain. The market repeatedly adjusts around the key 10 yuan price level. In early March, secondary fattening animals entered the market, with noticeable restocking in Liaoning, Hebei, and other provinces, mostly around 10%. The average price of weaned piglets continues to decline to around 270-320 yuan.

Summary: Short-term prospects remain bleak; focus on capacity reduction driven by longer-term supply adjustments, and consider buying on dips.

Risk Warning: This information is provided by the research and development team of the futures company. All data is sourced from publicly available information. CITIC Construction Investment Futures strives for accuracy but does not guarantee the correctness or completeness of this information. Trading based on this information is at your own risk. This report does not constitute personal trading advice and does not consider individual client’s specific trading goals, financial situation, or needs. Clients should evaluate whether any opinions or suggestions herein are suitable for their particular circumstances. (Wei Xin, Futures Trading Consulting Practitioner ID: Z0014814; Liu Hao, Futures Trading Consulting Practitioner ID: Z0021277; Deng Haoran, Futures Trading Consulting Practitioner ID: Z0023357)

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