Lithium Mining Sector Shakes and Declines, Tibet Urban Investment Hits Daily Limit; UBS: Global Lithium Market Enters Third Super Cycle of Pricing

(Source: Caixin)

Mysteel forecasts that lithium carbonate prices will fluctuate within the range of 130,000 to 170,000 yuan per ton in the short term.

On March 16, lithium mineral stocks experienced a midday decline, with Tibet Urban Investment (600773.SH) hitting the daily limit down. Huayou Cobalt (603799.SH), Salt Lake Shares (000792.SZ), Zhongkuang Resources (002738.SZ), Tibet Everest (600338.SH), and Yongxing Materials (002756.SZ) all fell more than 5%.

Although the sector was affected that day, it has continued to attract market attention recently. Previously, Zimbabwe’s Ministry of Mining announced an immediate halt to all ore and lithium concentrate exports (including in-transit goods). According to official data, Zimbabwe has one of Africa’s largest lithium reserves and is one of the world’s major producers, with estimated resources of 126 million tons.

Additionally, lithium carbonate futures have been highly volatile recently, with a cumulative increase of 33.5% since the beginning of the year. According to Mysteel research, Zimbabwe’s export ban on unprocessed lithium minerals has substantially impacted shipments. Cargoes shipped before the ban (about 25,000 tons of lithium concentrate) can still arrive normally, but all subsequent shipments of unprocessed minerals (including lithium sulfate and lithium concentrate) have been suspended, with no clear timeline for lifting the ban, creating constraints on mid-term raw material supply. Mysteel expects lithium carbonate prices to fluctuate within the range of 130,000 to 170,000 yuan per ton in the short term.

UBS states that the sluggish lithium prices from 2024 to 2025 have led to the clearance of over 30% of high-cost global capacity. Many lithium mining expansion projects have been delayed. The global lithium market has entered its third supercycle of prices. The forecast for spodumene prices in 2026 has been sharply raised by 74% to $3,131 per ton, and lithium carbonate prices adjusted to $26,000 per ton. The core driver of this cycle is no longer just electric vehicles but the global surge in energy storage demand. It is expected that by 2030, global demand will double to 3.4 million tons; by 2035, energy storage applications will account for 42% of total lithium demand worldwide.

CICC research reports that, based on Xinluo Information and industry chain surveys, lithium battery production in March is expected to increase by 20–30% month-on-month and 40–100% year-on-year, showing a high-speed recovery trend. Meanwhile, CICC is optimistic about the spring offensive in the lithium battery sector driven by triple catalytic resonance, including demand recovery leading to main chain repair and the mild inflation start in the industry chain releasing fundamental resilience.

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