March 18 Pre-Market Core Strategy

1 Overall Market Analysis [Taogu Ba]
1.1 Time Nodes and Trend Forecast
(1) Today (March 18) is a critical turning point day.
(2) Normal expectation is for recovery today; the strength of the recovery depends on trading volume; if the 60-minute consolidation forms a bottom structure, a small rebound will occur, not a major low point, and risks are not fully eliminated.
1.2 Key Levels and Ranges
(1) The dividing line between bulls and bears: 4,000 points. If effectively broken below, the market shifts to a high-level consolidation pattern, with a downward target of 3,968 points.
(2) Resistance levels: Short-term resistance at 4,110 and 4,136 points are significant; tomorrow’s resistance is at 4,110 points, which requires increased volume to stabilize.
(3) Operating Range: This week, the index is within 4,000-4,136 points, choosing a direction.
1.3 Volume and Trading Guidance
(1) Before 10 AM tomorrow, the market must close red and actively trade over 100 billion early in the session to stabilize at 4,110 points.
(2) If volume shrinks and the attempt to break through 4,110 points fails, it is recommended to reduce holdings in stocks that have not hit the daily limit up.
(3) Effective break below 4,000 points with shrinking volume indicates market divergence and potential decline; only suitable for identifying stocks with strong group recognition, de-emphasizing sector effects.
(4) No risk in the medium to long term; short-term uncertainties remain, and decisions should wait for clear signs of strength.
2 Overall Trading Strategy
2.1 Core Trading Mindset
(1) Use arbitrage thinking, betting on unexpected targets, and selling short the next day.
(2) Trading volume below 2.5 trillion indicates a “fan” market; follow contrarian logic: focus on the first board with unexpected strength after adjustment, avoid chasing after large gains.
(3) When market volume stays above 2.5 trillion, trading tolerance increases.
2.2 Stock Selection and Risk Control Rules
(1) Avoid stocks with 10-day gains of 100% or 30-day gains of 200% to prevent triggering regulatory intervention and capital rush.
(2) Prioritize stocks with unexpected first-board strength after correction, or stocks hitting new highs with no resistance on the left side, indicating strong trends.
(3) Trading is more difficult; if criteria are not met, consider holding cash.
2.3 Definition of Unexpected Targets
Core recognition: stocks with unexpected rapid limit-ups, no more than 5 per day.
3 Sector Rebound Conditions
3.1 Chemical Industry
(1) Sanfangxiang: advance before 9:45, no further decline.
(2) Chitianhua: advance before 9:45, no further decline.
(3) Zhuolang Intelligent: advance before 9:45, no further decline; ideally with large single orders.
(4) Jinniu Chemical, Jizhengda, LuHua Technology: no further decline, red opening oscillation before 10:00.
(5) Complete 5-4-3-2-1 structure before 9:45, sector can rebound.
3.2 Power and Energy Collaboration
(1) Energy-saving Wind Power: advance before 9:45, no further decline.
(2) Shun Na Co.: advance before 9:45, no further decline.
(3) Green Power, GCL Energy Science, Jinkai New Energy: one of these weak within 15 minutes then strong with limit-up; others no further decline.
(4) China Energy Construction, China Electric Power Construction: oscillate red before 10:00, no further decline.
3.3 Energy Storage (Wind, Solar, Storage)
(1) Fasheng: advance before 9:45, no further decline.
(2) Xihua Technology: advance before 9:45, no further decline.
(3) Huadian Liaoning: advance before 9:45, no further decline.
(4) Guosheng Technology: advance before 9:45, no further decline.
4 Other Important Tips
4.1 Core Market Features
(1) Popular sectors are all attracting capital; stocks reaching new highs within 100 days with no resistance on the left are concentrated in these sectors.
(2) When only some sector conditions are met, internal divergence and random movements will occur; the core logic is price increase.
4.2 Market Height Observation
Today is a key node for breaking the five-board pattern; the current market’s highest is four boards. Breaking this pattern indicates large-scale sector rebound; otherwise, the rally ends.