"El Niño" is coming—will it be "super hot" this year?

Recently, topics such as “The next two years may become the hottest years in history” and “The Earth may experience a super El Niño phenomenon” have attracted widespread attention. Many media outlets report that multiple research institutions worldwide predict that a strong El Niño could occur later this year, disrupting global climate. This may not only trigger extreme heat, floods, droughts, and other disasters but also further raise global temperatures, leading to record-high temperatures this summer and next.

In response to these societal concerns, reporters interviewed experts from the National Climate Center for analysis.

It is too early to definitively say that a “super El Niño” will occur this year

Based on the latest monitoring data and predictions from various domestic and international climate models, the National Climate Center’s analysis indicates that the La Niña state is currently ending and will soon transition to a neutral state. The sea surface temperatures in the tropical central and eastern Pacific are expected to continue rising, and an El Niño condition may develop in late spring.

Liu Yunyun, director of the Climate Prediction Office at the National Climate Center, explained that historically, about one-third of La Niña events end with an El Niño in the same year. Different models worldwide predict the timing of El Niño development with varying results: the earliest possible is April this year, and the latest could be late summer or early autumn. Predictions differ significantly among models.

For example: the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts predicts April; Australia predicts May; Japan Meteorological Agency predicts June; U.S. experts’ voting forecast suggests July to September.

Overall, there is a higher likelihood of an El Niño developing in the central and eastern tropical Pacific in the second half of this year, but it is still too early to accurately predict its exact onset and overall strength. Currently, results from multiple international climate prediction models still show significant discrepancies, and no consensus has been reached. Therefore, it is premature to conclude that a “super El Niño” will occur this year.

Experts advise: view climate prediction information rationally

Chen Lijuan, chief expert of the Climate Prediction Office at the National Climate Center, pointed out that El Niño events are often accompanied by an increase in global average temperatures. However, the specific magnitude of warming and the manifestation of extreme weather depend on the strength, type, and regional climate response of the El Niño, which requires further monitoring and assessment.

Currently, discussions on social media about “hottest years” and “extreme weather” are lively, but some information may be exaggerated or taken out of context. Experts recommend the public:

• Rationally interpret prediction information, especially since the exact timing, strength, and regional impact of El Niño still require dynamic monitoring and forecasting;
• Pay attention to real-time updates from authoritative agencies rather than extreme statements based on single points in time;
• Be proactive in weather warnings and prepare accordingly. Agricultural producers should plan farming activities reasonably, and urban managers should strengthen the resilience of infrastructure such as power supply, water supply, and transportation.

More Highlights in the News

ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) is a coupled ocean-atmosphere oscillation phenomenon occurring in the tropical Pacific with a cycle of 3 to 7 years. It is a natural variability of the climate system. ENSO phases are generally indicated by the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in a fixed region of the tropical central and eastern Pacific, measured by the deviation from the climate average.

• If the 3-month moving average SST remains above 0.5°C for five months, it indicates a warm phase, called El Niño;
• If it remains below -0.5°C for five months, it indicates a cold phase, called La Niña;
• If the SST fluctuates between -0.5°C and 0.5°C, it is considered a neutral state.

Source: CCTV News

Editing: Feng Siquan

Chief Editor: Guo Hui

Review: Yang Jihong