⚠️ Blunt and straightforward — the U.S. Treasury has completed the largest single debt buyback in history.

The U.S. Treasury repurchased $15 billion in debt this week, surpassing last week's $14.7 billion, as Treasury yields continue to decline.

The Treasury has essentially become a half-market maker. These buybacks were not routine operations before:

The last time regular Treasury buybacks occurred was around 2000;
During the 5-year period from 2018-2023, there were only 7 buybacks total, each in the millions;
In 2025, there are close to 50 buybacks, and by 2026, it's jumped to nearly $10 billion per week.

The most troubling part is that the U.S. doesn't simply have a large debt burden — new debt is being issued rapidly, old debt requires constant refinancing, and refinancing costs are rising.

The Treasury has already gone to these extremes, so how much room does the Fed have left?

The ammunition magazine of liquidity is nearly depleted. If rates aren't cut soon, there won't even be thin air left to breathe.