Reversing residents' expectations is imminent

Compared to the past two years, the social financing issuance in the first two months of 2026 has been faster. Among them, the government continues to lead the effort. According to the 2026 budget plan, the total government financing scale for the year is about 13.9 trillion yuan, with 2.4 trillion yuan issued in the first two months, accounting for 17% of the annual total, unchanged from 2025. Benefiting from improved corporate financing, the annualized scale of credit investment in the first two months increased from 16 trillion yuan last month to 16.2 trillion yuan. Driven by these two factors, the annualized scale of social financing issuance in the first two months increased by 1.1 trillion yuan from the previous month to 37.8 trillion yuan. Considering the end-of-quarter factors in March, the total social financing issuance in the first quarter of 2026 is still expected to remain above 15 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate continuing to stay above 8%.

Table 1: Pace of Social Financing, Credit Issuance, and Government Financing

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