# Join Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley's Optimistic Camp! Barclays Shouts: US Stocks Showing Best Buying Opportunity in Nearly a Year

CNBC Finance APP learned that Alex Altmann of Barclays Bank pointed out that the U.S. stock market is signaling the strongest buy signal in nearly a year. He has joined the increasingly optimistic camp on Wall Street, believing that the worst phase of this recent sell-off may be over.

Altmann, head of global equity tactical strategies at the bank, stated in a client report on Tuesday that the bank’s stock timing indicator (BETI) fell overnight to -8.3, the lowest level since April last year during the Trump tariff turmoil. This indicator has reached a historically significant entry point indicating that stocks are “highly attractive.”

The BETI combines 19 input variables including market internal structure, positioning, sentiment, and macroeconomic data, aiming to identify tactical turning points in the stock market. Historical data shows that when the indicator is above +7, future returns tend to be poor; when below -7, it indicates a favorable environment for a stock rebound.

Barclays data shows that since 2015, when the indicator falls in the -8 to -7 range, the S&P 500’s average return over the next 42 days is 6.6%, with a 92% success rate; based on 38 observations, the median return during this period is 5.1%.

On Tuesday, the S&P 500 rose 0.3%, up 1.3% for the week, marking the best two-day performance since the outbreak of conflict in Iran.

The report notes that the latest reading’s pessimism partly reflects a deterioration in the S&P 500’s rate of change. Although the pullback from this year’s early highs appears modest in absolute terms, considering the unusually low volatility and narrow trading range over the past six months, this decline stands out.

Other influencing factors include a sharp repricing of high-yield credit spreads—despite their absolute levels remaining relatively moderate—and a sudden drop in Barclays’ stock frenzy indicator, all suggesting that bullish sentiment is rapidly waning.

Altmann wrote, “Barclays’ stock tactical strategy team believes that during this S&P 500 correction, U.S. stock market risks remain attractive.” He also added that systematic traders and active traders are holding relatively restrained positions, which could amplify any potential upward momentum.

“Intense Beta Short Squeeze” Expected

Altmann stated that currently, commodity trading advisor (CTA) positions are roughly flat or slightly short, and hedge fund net exposure is in the 30%-40% percentile range. This market structure increases the likelihood of an “intense beta short squeeze,” meaning that even with limited short-term participation, stocks could push back toward historical highs.

This month, affected by rising geopolitical risks, U.S. stocks have been under pressure amid choppy trading but are showing signs of stabilization. The S&P 500 rose 0.4% on Tuesday, rebounding from a four-day losing streak after ending Monday. Despite the conflict in the Middle East entering its third week and ongoing concerns about potential AI disruptions and private credit sector risks, investors have begun to “buy the dip.”

Altmann is among an increasing number of market experts predicting a stock market rebound. Earlier this week, strategists at Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan all indicated that earnings growth and valuations (though still high, less extreme than before) will support the market. In early March, Scott Rubner of Citadel Securities also reversed his bearish view on U.S. stocks, citing inflows from retail investors, volatility resets, and seasonal positive factors as supportive.