Open Source Securities: White Liquor Stocks Can Capture Two Main Themes While Balancing Long-Term Value and Cyclical Opportunities

Open Source Securities points out that there are two main investment themes in the liquor sector, balancing long-term value and short-term opportunities. First, allocate to leading liquor companies with strong brand barriers, core regional advantages, and stable operations; second, focus on growth-oriented targets, paying attention to second-tier and regional leading wine companies that have completed market clearing, channel optimization, and regional market share expansion.

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Policy Setting Confidence, Clear Recovery Trend for Liquor — Industry Review Report

1. Policy tone “Standardize and Improve Quality,” reversing restrictive perceptions of the industry and strengthening investment confidence

In 2026, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued the “Guidelines for Quality Improvement and Upgrading of the Brewing Industry (2026-2030).” The guidelines clearly define the brewing industry as a traditional advantageous industry, a basic livelihood industry, and a historic classic industry. This breaks the previous market perception of “regulation and contraction” in the liquor industry, marking a major shift from past restrictions to regulation and support. The core focus is on promoting standardization and high-quality development: on one hand, eliminating outdated capacity, standardizing production processes, and rectifying market chaos to purify the industry environment; on the other hand, increasing support for high-quality capacity, technological innovation, and brand cultivation to guide the industry toward refined, high-quality transformation. This clear policy direction alleviates market concerns about policy uncertainty, laying a solid policy foundation for the long-term healthy and orderly development of the liquor industry, and is a key support for current market investment confidence, dispelling previous negative industry development expectations.

2. Industry opportunities focus on regional deep cultivation and consumption restructuring, with clearer structural dividends

The guidelines emphasize the core concept of regionalization, promoting resource integration within regions and cultivating billion-yuan and hundred-billion-yuan特色产区. Regionalization relies on local terroirs and brewing heritage to create differentiated competition. Core regions (such as Sichuan and Guizhou) will leverage regional barriers to capture market share and enjoy clustering development benefits. Second, consumption scenarios are being deeply reconstructed, shifting from traditional social drinking to lifestyle consumption: high-end liquor is moving beyond business banquets to collections, family dinners, and private gatherings, emphasizing value; mass-market liquor focuses on daily drinking and home consumption needs, with high cost-performance products continuously demanded; new consumption tracks are emerging, with low-alcohol and lightly intoxicated products appealing to younger groups and social light-drinking needs. The integration of wine tourism and cultural tourism further links industry and tourism, broadening growth space.

3. Industry at cycle bottom, clear signs of recovery, with prominent allocation value

At the industry level, after years of adjustment, inventory pressures have eased. As terminal prices gradually decline, liquor sales slowdown narrows, and industry clearing accelerates. Leading companies, with brand advantages, continue to increase market share, further consolidating industry leadership. In capital markets, valuations are low, and public fund holdings have fallen to bottom levels; dividend yields of top liquor stocks are attractive. On the demand side, consumption scenarios are continuously recovering, with strong resilience in mass consumption. The industry has passed the adjustment trough and is entering a critical bottom-recovery phase, with recovery momentum gradually releasing.

4. Investment advice: Focus on core themes, buy on dips for long-term holding

Liquor investment can follow two main themes, balancing long-term value and short-term opportunities. First, allocate to liquor giants with deep brand barriers, core regional advantages, and stable operations, such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu. Second, focus on growth-oriented targets, paying attention to second-tier and regional leading wine companies that have completed market clearing, channel optimization, and regional market share expansion, such as Gujinggong and Jinshiyuan. Beneficiary stocks include Jiugui Liquor and Shede Spirits.

(Source: Yicai)