Ultimatum! Wall Street Legend Issues "Black Swan" Warning: AI Impact Far Exceeds Imagination, Can Your $BTC and $ETH Withstand It?

Howard Marks, co-founder of Oak Tree Capital, recently sent a heavily underestimated signal at a conference in New York. He believes that artificial intelligence is making the world more unpredictable than ever, and most investors have yet to grasp the depth of this impact.

He used an analogy, saying that the same force that gives AI tremendous power also brings it unpredictable uncertainty. We cannot know exactly what it will do or not do, and we cannot quantify how much it will replace human jobs. This unpredictability itself is the biggest risk.

Marks provided a concrete example to support his point. He mentioned that last month, Jack Dorsey’s company Block announced layoffs of about 4,000 employees, nearly half of its workforce. He asked, how many people worldwide truly understand the implications behind this? It’s not just cost-cutting for a tech company; it’s the tip of the iceberg of structural change.

He pointed out that the current mainstream approach in investing is to develop strategies based on one’s predictions of the future. But in the face of the fundamental transformation triggered by AI, that’s far from enough. Because the future landscape itself has become blurred.

Additionally, the rise of AI has intensified another longstanding issue: the opacity of private markets. When new technologies combine with opaque capital structures, risks are amplified. Having experienced multiple market cycles, Marks is instinctively wary of the hype driven by new technologies.

He reviewed history, saying you’ve never seen a steel bubble or a hamburger bubble, but new technologies or financial innovations always easily ignite markets. The reason is that they are entirely new, and their flaws have never been tested in reality. People rush in based on promises alone, ignoring potential downside risks.

So, how should investors respond to this situation? Marks offers a clear allocation logic: equities are preferable to bonds. His reasoning is straightforward: if you are taking on the fundamental business model risk of an AI company, you should seek returns as an owner, not as a fixed-income creditor.

This provides profound insight into how we should view the crypto market. Core assets like $BTC and $ETH have value narratives closely tied to technological innovation and macro uncertainty. When disruptive forces like AI increase global uncertainty, traditional valuation frameworks may fail, and market volatility will amplify. At such times, clear asset attributes and risk exposure become crucial.

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