Hexun Investment Advisor Li Cong: Overseas rebound continues, A-shares overreacted on Tuesday, Wednesday focus on key support levels

In the peripheral markets, Japan, South Korea, and European stock markets continue their rebound trend, while the U.S. stock market is also in a recovery phase. In comparison, the A-shares market today shows some overreaction. Tomorrow, focus should be on the support levels around the Shanghai Composite Index at 4030 points and the gap area of the ChiNext Index. If these levels can be effectively supported, the market may begin to rebound.

From the market details, all three stocks at low levels that advanced twice today have moved up, but this does not yet confirm a return of market sentiment. Regulatory authorities have not relaxed their stance; after-hours, Farsight (000890) issued a notice about potential suspension risks, and Shen Ying has entered the regulatory pool. Coupled with a shrinking trading volume environment, market volatility is increasingly driven by quantitative funds, and the safety of sentiment-driven trading remains questionable. Currently, the five-board limit is a clear short-term resistance point; further feedback from Farsight and Shen Ying should be monitored.

Regarding themes, the intra-day rebound in the power sector was mainly contributed by China Power (华电) with a one-in-two pattern, but major stocks like Western Electric, Dongfang Electric (600875), Energy Construction, and Tebian Electric did not collectively stop falling. The power sector will continue to fluctuate, but forming the previous scale effect remains challenging. The chemical sector shows an inverse index characteristic; as tech stocks are being realized and the index declines, the chemical sector’s Golden Bull and Chitianhua rallied at the close. Tomorrow, the sustainability of the chemical sector should be judged based on whether Sanfang X Neng can progress from four to five. It’s important to note that once the index rebounds, the chemical sector often faces pressure. The March market highlights the operational difficulty of such rebounds.

Fortunately, there is a strategy to somewhat maintain stability: during the resonance of the three major indices at their lows, observe institutional stocks aligned with the index direction. If tomorrow’s index falls to support levels and stabilizes, focus on sectors that resisted declines today—namely, technology or new energy. In technology, PCB stocks like ShunDe股份 (002463) and small-cap ZhongYing Technology show relative resilience; storage stocks with earnings support, such as Baiwei Storage and Demingli, are also worth watching; among overseas leading stocks, Zhongji Xuchuang (300308) also demonstrates resilience. In new energy, CATL (300750) and Sungrow (300274) roughly hold the 5-day moving average. Of course, other institutional segments resisting declines could also become rebound leaders; close observation during trading is necessary. The core approach remains focused on the index trend.

Finally, a word of encouragement: five consecutive days of decline are rare, and although quantitative strategies are harsh, the market will eventually return to rationality.

（Editor: Zhang Yan）

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