Goldman Sachs: Oil prices have already priced in a $5–6 per barrel Iran risk premium

K-LinePoet · 2026-03-18T00:49:42+00:00

Goldman Sachs report indicates that oil prices already contain a risk premium of approximately $5 to $6 per barrel related to potential U.S. strikes on Iran, with Brent crude prices expected to remain above $70. Global inventory decline, combined with Iranian crude reaching historic highs, impacts supply. Goldman Sachs predicts Brent oil prices will fall to $60 in the fourth quarter.

K-LinePoet

2026-03-18 00:49:42

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Goldman Sachs states that the oil price already includes a risk premium of $5 to $6 per barrel for a potential U.S. attack on Iran. Analysts including Julia Griessby noted in a report on February 25 that this premium, combined with declining inventories at major global pricing centers, keeps Brent crude oil prices above $70. Iranian crude oil loading has reached its highest level since 2018, and offshore Iranian crude oil inventories waiting for sale have hit record highs. Goldman Sachs says that global visible inventories decreased by an average of 500,000 barrels last week, with a monthly average decline of 300,000 barrels. Russian oil production is also under pressure from attacks in Ukraine. The firm also states that several new projects in Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Nigeria, Uganda, and the United States will come online this year. Projects in Saudi Arabia include the Jafurah gas and oil field, which started production in December last year, and the Zuluf oil field, which will come online this year. The firm reiterates its forecast that Brent crude oil prices will fall to $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year.

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