Bitcoin breaks above $74,500, but are professional traders turning bullish again?

Update Date: March 17, 2026

Key Conclusions

Summary first: This rebound past $74,500 seems driven more by “spot funds returning + ETF continuous net inflows + short covering” rather than a full-scale shift by professional traders into high-leverage bullish mode.

From the spot side, market liquidity has clearly improved: BTC is currently around $73,655, with an intraday high of $75,937; US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows for six consecutive trading days from March 9 to March 16, totaling about $962.8 million. Since March, based on disclosed trading days from March 2 to March 16, net inflows amount to approximately $1.5313 billion. This indicates genuine cash buying has returned. However, from derivatives indicators favored by professional traders, sentiment has not yet warmed: on one hand, market reports show that the 1-month BTC futures annualized premium remains only about 2%, well below the typical neutral range of 4%–8%; on the other hand, the 25-delta risk reversal in Deribit options market still shows a clear bias toward puts, indicating funds are still primarily buying insurance against downside. In other words, spot is strengthening, but derivatives are still hesitant.

1. Why did this rebound happen?

1. ETF re-emerges as the main driver

The most solid support for this recent rally still comes from ETF fund inflows.

According to Farside data, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $167.1M, $246.9M, $115.2M, $53.8M, $180.4M, and $199.4M from March 9 to March 16, forming six consecutive days of inflows. BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC remain the main attractors. This signals an important message: medium- to long-term allocation funds are re-exposing themselves to BTC, rather than just pushing prices higher through high-leverage contracts.

In terms of market structure, the main difference between ETF funds and high-leverage longs is:

• ETF funds tend to be “spot-oriented, allocation-focused,” with more sustained flows;
• Contract funds are more “trading-oriented, short-term,” and tend to withdraw quickly when risks emerge.

Therefore, this rebound isn’t without basis, but it primarily reflects “improved spot buying” rather than “professional traders collectively going all-in bullish.”

2. Macro and geopolitical factors give BTC a renewed “alternative asset” narrative

Recently, escalating Middle East tensions have impacted oil prices and global risk appetite. Reuters reports that conflicts involving Iran have pushed crude prices higher again, increasing concerns over energy shocks and re-inflation; simultaneously, global funds are reallocating into money market funds and safe-haven assets. Interestingly, in this context, BTC has not continued to fall sharply but has instead regained strength. This suggests some funds are once again viewing Bitcoin as a “non-sovereign, globally transferable alternative asset” for allocation.

However, this logic isn’t very solid. If oil prices rise further and inflation expectations increase, the Fed’s rate cut expectations could be pushed back, and risk asset valuations may remain under pressure. In short, this “safe-haven” narrative for BTC is more of a temporary relative return trade rather than a complete decoupling from macroeconomic cycles.

3. The rebound also includes a significant short covering component

BTC’s return above $74,000 isn’t just “new long buying,” but also partly driven by short positions being forced to cover. This is crucial: short covering-driven rallies tend to be rapid but not necessarily sustainable.

Therefore, when you see prices surging sharply, don’t simply interpret it as “professional traders fully turning bullish.” Sometimes it just means: The market was overly bearish, and spot buying plus short-term events caught it off guard.

2. Are professional traders really turning bullish? Look at three indicators

To answer whether “professional traders have returned to a bull mindset,” the focus should be on derivatives, not just candlestick charts.

1. Futures premium: not yet showing healthy bullish crowding

According to Cointelegraph via TradingView, after BTC reclaims above $74,500, the 1-month futures annualized premium remains only about 2%, well below the typical neutral range of 4%–8%.
What does this imply? It suggests professional traders are not eager to buy more futures at higher prices, indicating a lack of strong bullish consensus.

Additionally, Farside’s cross-exchange Bitcoin futures basis data shows:

• March 2026 contract basis: approximately 4.6%
• June 2026: approximately 2.6%
• September 2026: approximately 3.2%

This structure is interesting:

• Near-month contracts are not extremely pessimistic and are close to neutral;
• Longer-dated basis remains low, indicating a lack of confidence in sustained upward movement.

Thus, from the futures perspective, a more accurate interpretation isn’t “professionals are bullish again,” but rather:

They are no longer as extremely pessimistic as in February, but have not yet fully resumed active long accumulation or bid up longer-term prices.

2. Options skew: downside protection demand still high

Deribit’s weekly report on March 5 pointed out that the 7-day 25-delta risk reversal for BTC options remains skewed toward puts by about 9%, indicating a defensive market stance. Recent reports from Cointelegraph/TradingView also show that on Deribit, the delta skew has been around 13% for several weeks, consistently in the bearish zone; the explanation is that when professional funds are actively avoiding downside risk, puts tend to command higher premiums relative to calls.

This clearly indicates:

• If traders were truly turning bullish again, the first signs would be cheaper puts (less downside insurance demand) and increased call demand.
• But what we see now is: people are still willing to buy spot and accept some upside, but are reluctant to give up downside protection.

This isn’t typical of a full-blown bull market; rather, it’s more like:

Cautiously leaning bullish, participating gradually while still hedging.

3. But the medium-term structure isn’t entirely bearish: March options positions show signs of recovery

CME Group’s March 6 report highlights that:

• Call open interest for March expiry is about $660 million
• Put open interest is about $240 million
• Ratio close to 3:1

What does this mean?

It indicates the market isn’t purely defensive.
More precisely, short-term traders remain cautious, but medium-term positions are starting to prepare for a rebound or recovery.

Therefore, the most accurate current assessment is:

• Short-term derivatives: cautious, defensive bias
• Medium-term positions: potential for continued rebound, beginning to add upside exposure
• Spot funds: have clearly improved

In short, professional traders aren’t “completely bullish again,” but have shifted from extreme pessimism to a more reserved re-engagement.

3. Why has the price risen but “professional sentiment” not yet fully recovered?

This is the most critical point to understand about this rally.

Reason 1: macro risks haven’t disappeared; they’ve become more complex

Reuters reports that recent Middle East conflicts have reignited concerns over energy shocks, inflation, and economic slowdown. This creates a very awkward combination:

• Rising oil prices → increased inflation fears
• Inflation fears → harder for the Fed to cut rates quickly
• High interest rates → risk assets remain under pressure

Thus, while professional funds acknowledge the short-term bounce in BTC, they are not rushing to reallocate into high-leverage bullish positions immediately.

Reason 2: Policy catalysts are not unfolding as expected

Reuters on March 17 also reported that Citi has lowered its 12-month BTC target from $143,000 to $112,000, partly due to delays in US crypto legislation.
The range indicates:

• In a recession scenario, BTC could fall back to $58,000
• In a bull scenario, BTC could rise to $165,000

This isn’t Citi being outright bearish; rather, it reflects:

Market divergence remains high, and key variables determining direction are still unresolved.

Without clear policy clarity, professional funds tend to:

• Buy some spot
• Keep upside options open
• Continue buying insurance

Reason 3: The scars from last year’s high levels still linger

Many leveraged positions were established at higher prices, and recent sharp declines have made market makers and leverage players more cautious.
In this environment, shifting from “rebound” to “trend reversal” generally requires at least three conditions:

1. Price stabilizes above key levels, not just a quick spike
2. Futures basis sustains at 5%–8% or higher
3. Options skew returns to neutral or even call-tilted

Currently, none of these conditions are fully met.

4. My view: “Spot bull is back, derivatives haven’t fully caught up”

Synthesizing all clues, I’d describe the current BTC market as:

Current state: cautious leaning bullish, not a full-blown bull

This means:

• Price rally is real
• Funds are flowing back into spot
• But derivatives still show no consensus among professionals on a renewed bull phase

If I had to sum up in one sentence:

Bitcoin has been pushed higher mainly by spot buying, but derivatives traders are still watching and hedging, not fully convinced of a new bull.

5. What to watch next to confirm “professional traders are turning bullish again”?

In the next one to two weeks, focus on four key indicators:

1. Will ETF net inflows continue?

If ETF inflows persist, it indicates spot buying is more structural than impulsive.

2. Can longer-dated futures basis rise?

If June/September basis systematically exceeds 5%, it signals professional funds are willing to pay premiums for future upside.

3. Does Deribit skew return to neutral?

If put premiums decline significantly, indicating reduced downside fear; if calls start becoming more expensive, that’s a sign of traders re-engaging bullish.

4. Are macro and policy variables easing?

Including:

• Middle East tensions easing
• Oil prices declining
• Fed policy path clarifying
• US crypto legislation advancing

If these variables worsen, even a strong BTC may just oscillate at high levels with wide divergence, rather than a smooth bull trend.

Conclusion

Returning to the initial question:

After breaking above $74,500, are professional traders turning bullish again?

My answer:

Not yet fully. More precisely, it’s “from extreme pessimism to cautious optimism.” Spot market has led the rally, ETF flows are returning; but futures and options indicate that the risk appetite among professionals remains guarded.

This isn’t a bad sign. On the contrary, a healthier rally often doesn’t start with universal market euphoria, but with prices rising first and sentiment recovering later.

The biggest warning now isn’t “the rally will top out,” but that many mistake a “rebound confirmation” for “a full-blown bull market has returned.”

Based on current data, the latter has not yet happened.

Sources (as of 2026-03-17)

1. OpenAI Finance Data: BTC real-time quotes and intraday highs/lows (2026-03-17)
2. Farside Investors: US Spot Bitcoin ETF Daily Flows
3. Farside Investors: Bitcoin Futures Basis Annualized Rates
4. Deribit Insights: Crypto Derivatives Analytics Report – Week 10, 2026
5. CME Group OpenMarkets: Bitcoin Options Traders Eye Rebound as Volatility Hits Three-Year High
6. Reuters: Citigroup cuts 12-month bitcoin, ether targets as US crypto legislation stalls (2026-03-17)
7. Reuters: Reports on Middle East conflicts, oil prices, and global safe-haven flows (2026-03-04 to 2026-03-17)
8. TradingView / Cointelegraph: Bitcoin tops $74.5K but are pro traders turning bullish again? (2026-03-17)