National Bureau of Statistics, Latest Release! Main Economic Indicators Show Significant Rebound in the First Two Months

On March 16, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that in the first two months, the country’s fixed asset investment turned from decline to growth. Indicators such as industrial added value, service industry production index, and total retail sales of consumer goods all accelerated their year-on-year growth compared to December of last year. Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, chief economist, and director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics on the National Economy, stated that from January to February, key economic indicators rebounded significantly, marking a strong start to economic activity.

Among the consumer-related indicators released this year, an important change is the first-time publication of the “Online Goods and Services Retail Sales” indicator, while the “Online Retail Sales” indicator has been discontinued. According to reports, the online short drama market has been quite popular this year, with platform monitoring showing that transaction volume on online short drama platforms increased by over 30% in January and February.

Fixed Asset Investment Turns Positive, Major Projects Accelerate Construction

Data shows that from January to February, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) nationwide reached 52.721 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, compared to a 3.8% decline for the entire previous year. Excluding real estate development investment, fixed asset investment grew by 5.2%.

In terms of sectors, infrastructure investment increased by 11.4% year-on-year, manufacturing investment grew by 3.1%, while real estate development investment declined by 11.1%.

Fu Linghui indicated that since the beginning of the year, investment has shown positive changes. Looking at key areas, infrastructure investment increased by 11.4% year-on-year in January and February, significantly faster than the growth rate for the entire previous year. Meanwhile, the construction of large projects has accelerated, with planned investments of 100 million yuan or more increasing by 5% year-on-year in the first two months. Driven by industrial upgrading and development needs, traditional industries are being transformed and emerging industries are expanding, leading to a rebound in manufacturing investment. Manufacturing investment in January and February grew by 3.1% year-on-year, accelerating by 2.5 percentage points compared to the full year of last year.

Regarding new growth drivers, investment in high-tech industries increased by 5.1% year-on-year in January and February, with aerospace equipment manufacturing and information services growing by 20.2% and 16.5%, respectively. As industrial technological capabilities improve, high-end equipment manufacturing is on a positive trend, with rapid growth in investment. Investment in railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and other transportation equipment manufacturing increased by 31.1% in the first two months. China’s green energy transition is steadily advancing, with capacity for wind and photovoltaic energy continuing to grow, and related investments expanding. In January and February, investment in power and heat production and supply industries increased by 13.1%.

Additionally, the effects of policies to expand effective investment are becoming evident. State-controlled investment increased by 7.7% year-on-year in January and February, significantly faster than last year; private investment in infrastructure grew by 9%. “These figures show that the positive role of government investment in leading and driving private investment is quite apparent,” Fu said.

Market Sales Rebound Significantly, New Consumption Drivers Strengthen

In observing consumption, it is important to look not only at total retail sales of consumer goods but also at service retail sales. In January and February, total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.8% year-on-year, 1.9 percentage points faster than December last year, and 1.1 percentage points faster than the fourth quarter of last year. Service retail sales grew by 5.6% year-on-year, slightly faster than the entire previous year by 0.1 percentage points, continuing to outpace merchandise retail sales.

Fu Linghui explained that during the Spring Festival holiday, residents’ cultural and tourism consumption increased significantly, boosting related service sales. At the same time, the expansion of visa-free entry policies led to an increase in inbound tourists, further promoting domestic market sales.

In terms of merchandise consumption, residents’ consumption quality is steadily improving. Coupled with holiday-driven spending, sales of basic daily necessities have expanded notably. In the first two months, retail sales of grain, oil, food, clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles above designated size increased by 10.2% and 10.4%, respectively. Driven by consumption upgrades, sales of related products for development and improvement needs grew rapidly. In the first two months, retail sales of gold, silver, and jewelry above designated size increased by 13% year-on-year. Among household appliances and audio-visual products, high-efficiency products maintained double-digit growth, indicating an expanding demand for green products.

A key change in the consumer-related indicators released this year is the first-time publication of the “Online Goods and Services Retail Sales” indicator, while the “Online Retail Sales” indicator has been discontinued.

Fu explained that the main difference is that the “Online Goods and Services Retail Sales” indicator broadens the scope of online service platform statistics and enhances the measurement of online service retail sales.

Data shows that in January and February, online goods and services retail sales increased by 9.2% year-on-year, significantly faster than the growth of total retail sales of consumer goods. Online goods retail sales grew by 10.3%, outpacing the growth of total retail goods sales, continuing to strengthen the role of online consumption.

The popularity of online service consumption continues to rise, with online service retail sales increasing by 7.3% year-on-year in January and February, also outpacing the growth of total service retail sales.

Fu noted that this year, the online short drama market has been quite popular, with platform monitoring showing that transaction volume on online short drama platforms increased by over 30% in January and February.

Equipment Manufacturing Becomes a Key Driver of Industrial Growth

In January and February, industrial added value above designated size increased by 6.3% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.1 percentage points compared to December last year.

Fu explained that, from industry and product perspectives, most sectors and products have seen growth rebound. Among 41 major industry categories, 31 experienced faster growth than December last year, with a rebound rate of 75.6%. Of over 600 key products monitored, more than 350 saw growth rates improve compared to December, with nearly 60% showing a rebound.

As China’s industrial technological capabilities improve, high-end equipment manufacturing is on a positive trajectory, with rapid growth. In the first two months, added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in equipment manufacturing increased by 9.3%, accounting for 33.5% of all industrial enterprises above designated size. Notably, the added value of computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing, as well as railway, ship, aerospace, and other transportation equipment manufacturing, increased by 14.2% and 13.7%, respectively.

Fu stated that with enhanced competitiveness and strength over the years, equipment manufacturing has increasingly become a vital pillar for industrial growth.

Meanwhile, traditional manufacturing industries are steadily upgrading, with some sectors forming new growth points. For example, in January and February, the added value of the petroleum processing industry increased by 10.2%, with biomass fuel processing up by 55.3%; chemical fiber industry grew by 6.1%, with bio-based materials manufacturing increasing by 25.1%, contributing 30.1% to the growth of the chemical fiber sector.

Furthermore, Fu pointed out that emerging industries in China are accelerating their growth. In the first two months, added value of high-tech manufacturing above designated size increased by 13.1% year-on-year, with digital product manufacturing up by 8.8%. The added value of smart vehicle equipment manufacturing and intelligent unmanned aerial vehicles increased by 46.3% and 26.6%, respectively, reflecting a continuous expansion in demand for intelligent products in industrial production.