International Air Transport Association forecasts aviation travel demand will more than double by 2050

Investing.com - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released a long-term air travel demand forecast report on Tuesday, predicting that global air passenger demand will more than double by 2050.

Under a moderate growth scenario, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.1% from 2024 to 2050, demand is expected to reach 20.8 trillion revenue passenger kilometers, up from 9 trillion revenue passenger kilometers in 2024.

In a high growth scenario, with a CAGR of 3.3%, passenger demand will reach 21.9 trillion revenue passenger kilometers by 2050. Under a low growth scenario, with a CAGR of 2.9%, demand will reach 19.5 trillion revenue passenger kilometers by 2050.

These different scenarios are based on varying models of long-term economic growth, population trends, aviation fuel prices, global energy transition, and supply-side capacity development in air transport.

IATA Director General Willie Walsh stated that the outlook for air travel is optimistic and that people want to travel. He added that in all modeling scenarios, demand for air travel is expected to more than double by the middle of this century. Walsh said this is good news for the global economy and social development, as growth in the aviation industry will generate various opportunities worldwide, including employment.

Growth rates will vary across regions, reflecting differences in population structure, market maturity, economic development, and connectivity potential. Under the moderate growth scenario, from 2024 to 2050, the Asia-Pacific and Africa regions are expected to be the fastest-growing, with CAGRs of 3.8% and 3.6%, respectively. Growth in Europe and North America is expected to be slower, at 2.5% and 2.8%, respectively.

The forecast report highlights that the fastest-growing markets are domestic routes within Africa (4.9%), Africa to Asia-Pacific (4.5%), Asia-Pacific to Middle East (3.9%), domestic routes within Asia-Pacific (3.9%), and Africa to North America (3.8%).

The report confirms that the COVID-19 pandemic has caused a permanent structural shift in global air demand. The collapse in revenue passenger kilometers created a persistent gap, and even under the high growth scenario, demand is not expected to return to pre-pandemic levels aligned with GDP by 2050.

While long-term demand remains strong, growth rates are gradually slowing down. Historical analysis shows that the average annual growth rate slowed from 6.1% (CAGR) between 1972 and 1998 to 4.5% (CAGR) from 1998 to 2024. The moderate scenario forecast for 2024-2050 indicates a further slowdown to a CAGR of 3.1%.

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