He Xun Investment Advisor Fang Rongxia: Opening Lower, Testing Bottoms, and Bouncing Back—Is This a Bull Trap or Bargain Hunting?

Will it fall again tomorrow? Will it go up or down tomorrow? Three signals are very important.

Hithink Securities analyst Fang Rongxia said that the prediction for today’s A-shares was a slight opening lower, followed by oscillation and a pullback, then a rebound. If today’s A-shares are following this script, the key question is what will happen tomorrow? Whether it rises or falls depends on three key signals.

First, the Shanghai Composite Index fell to the 60-day moving average today, holding the first technical line of defense. This confirms its effectiveness, and the short-term downside space is limited.

Second, the 60-minute chart of the STAR Market 50 Index shows a bullish divergence signal. As a tech sector indicator, this is a positive sign, indicating that the downward momentum in the tech sector is weakening.

Third, on the capital side, trading volume has mildly decreased, indicating that the market is still mainly driven by existing funds. Funds have withdrawn from previously hot cyclical sectors and flowed into more stable sectors like liquor and semiconductors, showing clear rotation signals. In this rotation pattern, chasing high is very risky, and it’s more suitable to buy on dips.

Therefore, my clear view is that the resistance from the daily divergence top still exists. The index is unlikely to quickly reverse its downward trend in the short term. Tomorrow is likely to see a continued decline due to inertia, but a recovery upward will require synchronized trading volume.