US Gasoline Prices Surge to Highest Levels Since October 2023

Last weekend, Middle Eastern oil facilities were attacked, and the White House hinted that the US-Iran conflict could continue for several more weeks. On Monday, international oil and gas prices remained high.

According to data from the American Automobile Association (AAA), the average US regular gasoline price rose by 2 cents to below $3.72 per gallon, the highest level since October 7, 2023.

Since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict, gasoline prices in the US have increased by a total of 74 cents per gallon; over the past month, the increase has been 26.9%, the largest monthly rise since Hurricane Katrina.

This price surge directly impacts one of President Trump’s core achievements—during his second term, gasoline prices had been steadily falling, dropping below $3 per gallon in December last year, the lowest since May 2021.

Diesel prices have risen even more dramatically, increasing by $1.24 per gallon since the conflict began, with an average price now reaching $4.99, approaching the $5 mark for the first time since December 2022. Several freight companies have started imposing high fuel surcharges, which may be passed on to consumers.

On Monday, the global benchmark Brent crude oil edged up to $103.50 per barrel; the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 1% to about $98 per barrel.

Last week, after the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran, Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, banning most oil tankers from passing through, causing the most severe oil supply disruption in history—about 20% of global oil supplies are transported through this waterway. As a result, both Brent and US crude prices surged to their highest levels since 2022.

The conflict has now entered its third week, with no signs of ending. ING commodity strategist Jim Reid noted in a report on Monday that the US military’s Friday attack on Iran’s Hagh Island has raised concerns about oil supply, as most of Iran’s oil exports are shipped from this location.

Although the attack appears to target military facilities rather than energy infrastructure, it still poses a supply risk—“especially since Iran’s oil is currently almost the only crude transported through the Strait of Hormuz.”

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On March 15, 2026, in Tehran, Iran, during the US-Iran conflict, civilians walk past an attack site.

The UK is working with allies to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with Trump urging countries to assist.

Shortly after the Hagh Island attack, debris from a intercepted Iranian drone fell at a key oil terminal in the UAE, causing operations to halt and highlighting the threat to Middle Eastern oil facilities.

Although the US has not yet targeted Iran’s oil infrastructure, Trump warned on the “Real Social” platform Friday night that if Iran continues to interfere with ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the US may reconsider its stance.

Deutsche Bank’s macroeconomic research chief Jim Reid summarized Monday: “Markets remain concerned about further escalation of the conflict, and over time, investors have begun pricing in a more prolonged conflict.”

On Sunday, Trump urged China and US allies to send warships to help resolve the shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and warned that if countries do not assist, NATO’s future will be “worrying.” No countries have yet committed to deploying warships.

Meanwhile, Iran continues to exert pressure, including laying mines in the strait and threatening to attack any US-related oil and gas infrastructure. Since the conflict erupted on February 28, more than ten ships have been attacked in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian Foreign Minister Amir Abdollahian said in an interview with CBS on Sunday that Iran is willing to negotiate with countries seeking safe passage through the strait.

Also on Sunday, the International Energy Agency announced that after member countries agreed last week to release 400 million barrels of oil reserves, emergency reserves will soon be released into the global market. Reserves in Asia and Oceania will be activated immediately, while reserves in the Americas and Europe will begin releasing at the end of March.

Over the weekend, the Trump administration took several measures to increase US oil production to cope with rising fuel prices. On Saturday, the government approved BP’s new project in the Gulf of Mexico—its first new project since the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Additionally, Energy Secretary Chris Wray instructed Sable Offshore to restart offshore oil drilling platforms and pipelines off the Southern California coast.

The actual closure of the Strait of Hormuz has far-reaching impacts beyond the oil sector. Global farmers rely on the transportation of fertilizers through the strait, which could drive up food prices; perishable goods such as dairy, fruits, vegetables, and seafood may be among the first to see price increases.