Oil prices surge nearly 10%, International Energy Agency significantly cuts oil supply growth forecast

According to CCTV Finance, on Thursday local time, Iran’s newly appointed Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, made his first statement on national television, saying Iran will continue to adopt strategic measures, including blocking the Strait of Hormuz, and will open new fronts if necessary. Additionally, energy analysts estimate that the International Energy Agency (IEA) member countries’ decision to release 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves can only cover up to a quarter of the supply gap caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The speed of release and logistics cycle remain unclear. Market concerns about the risk of oil supply disruptions continue to grow, leading to a surge of over 9% in international oil prices that day. By the close, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at $95.73 per barrel, up 9.72%; Brent crude oil futures for May delivery in London closed at $100.46 per barrel, up 9.22%.

Meanwhile, the IEA’s monthly report released on Thursday shows that the Middle East conflict is causing the most severe oil supply disruptions in history, with oil production in Gulf countries decreasing by at least 10 million barrels per day. If shipping cannot be quickly restored, the supply loss will further expand. Against this backdrop, the IEA forecasts that global daily oil supply will increase by 1.1 million barrels this year, significantly down from the previous estimate of 2.4 million barrels. Throughout March, global daily oil supply is expected to plummet by 8 million barrels.