What Impact Do Geopolitical Conflicts Have on Non-Ferrous Metals? Non-Ferrous Metals ETF Tianzhong (159157) Records Cumulative Net Inflows Exceeding 3.4 Billion Yuan Over 18 Consecutive Days

Everyday Economics Editor: Xiao Ruidong

On March 12, the two markets bottomed out and rebounded, with the non-ferrous metals sector declining. Regarding related ETFs, the Tianhong Non-Ferrous Metals ETF (159157) closed down 0.20%, with net subscriptions reaching 172 million units, ranking first among similar funds in the Shenzhen market; trading volume was 270 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 6.08%. Among the constituent stocks, Western Superconducting dropped over 5%, with stocks like Luoyang Molybdenum, Industrial Silver Tin, and Silver Non-Ferrous also falling.

Notably, Wind data shows that the Tianhong Non-Ferrous Metals ETF (159157) has achieved continuous “fund inflows” over the past 18 trading days (from February 6, 2026, to March 11, 2026), with a total net inflow of 3.411 billion yuan over the last 20 trading days. As of March 11, 2026, the fund’s latest size was 4.442 billion yuan, hitting a new high since its listing and ranking first among similar funds in the Shenzhen market.

Driven by the dual forces of “supply scarcity + cyclical recovery,” investors can consider the Tianhong Non-Ferrous Metals ETF (159157), which tracks the industrial non-ferrous metals index, along with its off-market connection (Class A: 017192; Class C: 017193), to position for the new phase of the super-cycle and AI strategic growth.

Over the past ten years, the PE-TTM of the industrial non-ferrous metals index has been 27.3 times. Its current valuation is at the 44.2% percentile historically, meaning it is below 55.8% of past periods. From a valuation perspective, the index has fallen back to a relatively reasonable range, and its long-term cost-effectiveness is gradually becoming apparent.

On the news front, escalating geopolitical conflicts are putting pressure on supply chains. ① Tensions in the Middle East have disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, affecting some capacity at Qatar and Bahrain aluminum producers. ② Meanwhile, China’s import and export data for January and February exceeded expectations, with industrial metal imports increasing by 17.6% year-on-year, indicating strong demand. ③ Weak U.S. non-farm employment data has heightened market expectations of Fed rate cuts, and a weaker dollar has supported metal prices. Additionally, the processing fees for imported copper concentrates remain low, reflecting ongoing tightness in mine supply.

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