Nvidia shares are rising before its big AI conference. Here's what Wall Street expects to hear

Shares of Nvidia climbed ahead of its closely watched developer conference this week as investors bet the event will offer fresh insight into the durability of the artificial intelligence spending boom and the chipmaker’s next generation of processors. The stock advanced about 2% Monday ahead of the company’s annual GTC conference, where CEO Jensen Huang is scheduled to deliver a keynote address at 2 p.m. ET. The gathering has become an increasingly important venue for Nvidia to outline its technology roadmap and reinforce investor confidence in demand for AI infrastructure. AI spending debate Analysts say the biggest question hanging over the semiconductor sector is whether hyperscaler spending on AI hardware can remain as strong as it has been over the past two years. “We believe that NVIDIA is due to catch up to other stocks in the supply chain, and see this as a very good entry point,” analysts at Morgan Stanley wrote in a preview note, reiterating the chipmaker as their top pick in semiconductors. The firm said the conference could help address investor debate around Nvidia’s long-term market share as competitors such as Advanced Micro Devices and custom AI chips gain traction. Analysts at Wells Fargo said Nvidia’s underperformance relative to the broader semiconductor sector this year has become a frequent topic among investors. The stock is down about 3% year to date compared with an 8% gain for the VanEck Semiconductor ETF . NVDA YTD mountain Nvidia year to date Long-term targets While GTC could act as a catalyst, Wells Fargo said expectations are already high with buy side estimates for Nvidia’s 2027 earnings hovering around $13 a share — a level that already assumes the success of future architectures such as Vera Rubin. Instead, Wells Fargo said clearer long-term targets could help reignite the stock. Analysts pointed out that rivals including Broadcom , Marvell Technology and AMD have all discussed multiyear outlooks, while Nvidia has typically provided only near-term guidance. “If NVDA puts out some firm bogey for CY27, it could be the positive catalyst needed to get the stock working,” Wells Fargo said. Analysts at Wolfe Research also said investors are eager for signals about the scale of future demand. The firm said Nvidia could offer new disclosures on AI-related revenue visibility for 2026 and 2027, which could be a potential catalyst if the company provides stronger long-term demand signals. Buybacks Another driver could be capital returns. Nvidia reported more than $60 billion in cash on its balance sheet in its latest quarterly report, while Wall Street models roughly $180 billion and $240 billion in free cash flow for 2026 and 2027, respectively. An updated buyback strategy unveiled at the conference could provide an additional boost for the shares, Wells Fargo said. Pipeline and roadmap Analysts at Bank of America expect the conference to spotlight Nvidia’s future product pipeline and customized AI systems designed for inference. The bank said investors will likely focus on updates extending the company’s roadmap through so-called Feynman-generation GPUs expected later this decade, along with potential commentary on the rollout of the Rubin architecture slated for 2027 and beyond. Bank of America maintained a buy rating on the shares, calling Nvidia “a top AI pick trading at a historical low 17 times forward earnings.” Other analysts are watching for technical announcements that could hint at Nvidia’s next wave of growth. Analysts at Mizuho said the conference could include details about a new Rubin rack platform expected to launch in the second half of 2026, as well as updates on networking, optical interconnects and specialized inference processors designed to dramatically boost performance. The firm also flagged potential discussion around quantum computing initiatives, including technology aimed at linking graphics processors with quantum processors in hybrid supercomputing systems. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed reporting.