Weight Loss Drug Competition Heats Up as Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly Shift from Injectables to Oral Tablets

[Global Times Finance Report] According to reports from Financial Times and other foreign media, the competition in the global weight loss drug market remains fierce. The main battleground for industry leaders Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly has shifted from injectable drugs to more convenient oral tablets. Novo Nordisk, with its oral version of Wegovy, was the first to market in an attempt to reverse its market share disadvantage. Eli Lilly’s oral weight loss drug is about to be approved, signaling a new round of industry reshaping.

(Image source: Financial Times)

Novo Nordisk’s once-daily oral weight loss drug Wegovy was approved by the U.S. FDA at the end of December last year and is currently only available in the U.S. IQVIA data shows that by the end of February this year, U.S. doctors had prescribed over 300,000 prescriptions for this medication. The company’s CEO stated that the number of prescriptions for the oral version has exceeded 600,000. Clinical trial data indicate an average weight loss of 17%, and the drug’s rapid market entry has been called “the fastest drug launch in history” by industry insiders. Novo Nordisk has also increased marketing efforts, launching its first Super Bowl ad, aiming to capture market share through the oral formulation.

Previously, Novo Nordisk dominated the weight loss drug market with products like Ozempic, but over the past year, Eli Lilly has surpassed it in market share in the U.S. This, along with clinical data, product line expansion, and profit expectations, has led to a more than 50% decline in Novo Nordisk’s stock price over the past 12 months—about two-thirds below its June 2024 peak. Its market value no longer surpasses European peers like AstraZeneca, Roche, and Novartis. Eli Lilly, on the other hand, has become a trillion-dollar company thanks to its drug Zepbound/Mounjaro, which has become the second-best-selling medication globally.

Oral formulations are seen as key to expanding the weight loss drug market. Eli Lilly’s oral weight loss drug, orforglipron, has an average weight loss of 12.4% in clinical trials and is expected to receive U.S. regulatory approval in April this year, directly competing with Novo Nordisk. As of the end of February, Eli Lilly’s weight loss drug prescriptions totaled 1.4 million, while Novo Nordisk’s combined oral and injectable weight loss prescriptions reached 924,000, with Eli Lilly currently maintaining a lead.

Pricing and ease of use are central competitive factors. The 1.5 mg and 4 mg doses of Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy oral tablets are priced at $149 per month (discounted until April). The 4 mg dose will later increase to $199, while the 9 mg and 25 mg doses are priced at $299 per month, with insured patients paying as little as $25 monthly. Eli Lilly’s orforglipron is priced at $149 per month, with higher doses up to $399. For uninsured patients, injectable weight loss drugs can cost up to approximately $1,300 per month, giving oral drugs a clear price advantage. A Goldman Sachs report states that the growth in oral weight loss drug sales mainly comes from new users, with no significant diversion from injectable users, indicating ongoing market expansion.

Supply chain and patent risks also influence the competitive landscape. Novo Nordisk has increased production capacity and launched direct-to-consumer sales channels to address previous supply shortages. However, its core ingredient, semaglutide, will see patent expirations this year in markets like India, Brazil, and Turkey, with Canadian patents already expired. Brazil and India are expected to see many generic manufacturers enter the market, putting downward pressure on prices.

Industry analysts believe that oral weight loss drugs offer Novo Nordisk an opportunity to regain market share. Price advantages and convenience are driving some patients to switch medications. However, in the long term, product differentiation, patent protection, and supply chain capabilities will ultimately determine the market’s final structure.