Strong El Niño phenomenon is expected to form as early as this summer, and record-high temperatures may be broken in the coming one to two years

Global authoritative climate agencies recently warned that a relatively strong El Niño event is forming and is expected to appear as early as this summer. This natural climate cycle could disrupt global weather patterns in the coming months, bringing extreme heat, floods, and droughts, while also potentially pushing global temperatures higher, making 2026 or 2027 the hottest years on record, surpassing 2024.

The Climate Prediction Center under the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued an “El Niño Watch” on the 12th, indicating that conditions for El Niño have already developed within the next six months. Meteorologists expect this phenomenon to form between June and August of this year and to last at least until the end of the year. Forecasts suggest about a one-third chance it could develop into a “strong El Niño,” which would significantly impact winter weather in the United States.

El Niño refers to the abnormal warming of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean near the equator, accompanied by systematic changes in atmospheric circulation, precipitation, and wind patterns. These events typically occur every few years and can have profound effects on global climate by altering ocean and atmospheric cycles. Current observations show an anomalously warm water mass beneath the surface of the Pacific Ocean, spreading from the Western Pacific toward the Eastern Pacific, which is considered a precursor to El Niño formation.

Meanwhile, the ongoing weak La Niña is gradually weakening. Scientists expect that from late spring to early summer this year, the atmosphere and ocean will enter a so-called “ENSO neutral state,” meaning neither La Niña nor El Niño. Subsequently, if various factors change—such as weakening trade winds along the equator, warm waters flowing from the Western Pacific to the Eastern Pacific and rising to the surface—El Niño could gradually develop from late summer to autumn.

Wei Ke, a researcher at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, told The Paper (www.thepaper.cn): “Based on current observational data, this will be a strong El Niño event, and the likelihood of this being recognized by the World Meteorological Organization is very high.”

Wei Ke further analyzed that this means global temperatures are likely to remain high from the end of this year into next year. Typically, the peak of global warming occurs in the year following an El Niño event. Considering the El Niño events of 2023-2024, the temperature increase caused by this phenomenon could exceed that of 2024. Therefore, the global temperature record set in 2024, which already reached 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels, might be broken as early as 2027, marking a new high in warming. Future extreme weather events may become more frequent and intense.

Wei Ke stated that the impact of El Niño is not limited to climate but also widely affects other areas such as commodities and agriculture. It is recommended that relevant sectors prepare in advance. For China, historical data show that strong El Niño years are usually accompanied by typical flooding and droughts in the south (such as in 1998, 2016, and 2024), while the north often experiences high temperatures and droughts. Typhoon landings tend to decrease but their paths shift more frequently, and warm winters are more prominent. However, with global warming intensifying in recent years, climate patterns are changing, and compound disasters are increasing. Extreme weather events are gradually becoming normalized, and strong El Niño will further exacerbate this trend.

Currently, most climate monitoring agencies from the US, Australia, and other regions have roughly consistent forecasts, although there are some differences in timing and intensity. Models from the US and Australia generally agree that the likelihood of El Niño forming in the coming months is high.

However, experts also caution that current predictions still carry significant uncertainty. The spring season is known as the “spring predictability barrier” in climate science, during which seasonal climate models tend to have lower accuracy. A meteorologist described this as like predicting the weather in thick fog—you need to wait for the fog to clear to see more clearly. Typically, as summer approaches, especially after June, the reliability of El Niño forecasts improves significantly.

The World Meteorological Organization stated that it will closely monitor climate developments over the coming months to support decision-making for countries.

The Paper Reporter Liu Dong