# Some Thoughts on Human Nature

Sometimes when you make money, you think about why you didn't buy more back then. Sometimes when you lose money, you think about why you even entered the trade in the first place.

Sometimes you don't set a stop loss and get liquidated directly, regretting you didn't stop out. Sometimes you stop out and the price does break through the range—you're glad you stopped out.

Sometimes watching sharp rallies and crashes, you miss out and slap your thigh. Sometimes you FOMO chase, one pullback and you're bleeding red, slapping your thigh in regret.

Why does the outcome make me doubt my original judgment?

Buddhism talks about cause and effect—no cause, no effect. So why use the ending to reverse-engineer the initial decision?

Last year, Bitcoin went from $74k to $126k. The Nasdaq index crashed 42% in April, then hit new highs by year-end. From 2026-02-20 black swan to now, Bitcoin went from $126k to $60k.

High volatility means high returns, but hidden behind it is high risk. Some people become whales overnight, others go bankrupt. Trading and gambling seem separated by just a wall—most people define whether it's trading or gambling purely by whether they made money. How do you avoid heading in the wrong direction?

Thinking back from 2026-02 to now, if you're going long, what was the best entry point? I'd say February 26, 2026, the day Iran was bombed—Ethereum at $1,845 was simply the best entry. As I write this, Ethereum is at $2,288—a lucky number indeed.

What should trading involve?

1. **Reduce frequency.** Honestly, if you just caught the bottom when the Nasdaq crashed 42% last year, you'd make about 50% annualized returns a year. Buy Bitcoin at $70k last year and don't look, hold to $126k. The key is making key decisions at critical moments.

2. **Enter at support and resistance.** Price oscillates between support and resistance—after oscillating for a time, major players choose direction and shift the range. Entering in the middle, neither up nor down, with high leverage, you can't hold profits and struggling with losses is uncomfortable. Better to have no position, no stress, eat something good.

3. **Handle FOMO emotions.** I ask you—watching Ethereum rally hard but it has nothing to do with you, won't you FOMO, worry about missing out and chase higher? What if it pulls back? The reality is that position was established by people who entered around $1,900. Missing out is fine—the bottom line is not losing money. Bull markets come and go, but capital is permanent.

4. **Cause produces effect.** Don't judge your initial decision by the outcome. Before entering, think through the worst-case scenario. Like my mid-term Ethereum long I entered around $1,900—currently sitting on 400% unrealized gains. I regretted not sizing bigger. But here's the thing: when I entered, I knew my stop loss was at my pain threshold. So I shouldn't say I bought too little—I should be happy because my strategy was right. That's what trading is. Forget the dollar amount, think more about risk control and whether your entry reason was solid.

To keep playing in this space, the most important thing is survival. Make money with your strategy, not give it away.

*Tomato, written on 2026-03-16 20:31*