#GateSquareAIReviewer agi will be deflationary. productive output will rise. goods and services will get cheaper.

a barbell strategy for market cap accretion will start to appear.
end1: hyper-financialization
when people have more time and don't have to worry about food, clothing, and shelter they turn towards financial status games.
we will continue to see explosive growth in instruments that price short-term uncertainty:
• perps
• prediction markets
• options
• spot speculation
• sweepstakes-style trading
the moats here are liquidity network effects, and lock-in similar to the sunk cost from time spent upleveling in video games.
end2: atoms
agi might be here for white collar work, but atoms are way harder.
supply chains, mining, ports, transport, manufacturing. ai that augments these systems will be extremely valuable.
technical difficulty and economies of scale are genuine moats.
the middle:
software in the middle of this barbell will struggle. for example, low end vertical saas without systems of record or proprietary datasets that improve the workflow as usage increases, are going to asymptote towards zero.