Lu Kaifeng: Second dip below 5000, gold still in a bull market

On March 16, the long-term fundamentals for gold have not changed. Central banks around the world continue to increase their gold holdings, de-dollarization is progressing, geopolitical risks are rising, and inflation is gradually becoming stubborn as crude oil prices climb. So why has gold still fallen? None of the core logic supporting a long-term bull market for gold has been broken. International spot gold has already fallen back from around 5300 to the 5000 level, which is a psychological threshold. The current market panic is alarming, but to truly profit from this, one needs the right mindset and a long-term perspective. The 5000 level is mainly a psychological barrier; we can use a small position at this level to try to catch the bottom. Subsequent additions should be in the 4900-4850 range—if the price reaches there, buy; if not, hold long positions at 5000 and add gradually as prices rise. External forces are unpredictable, and often when the 5000 level is seen as the bottom, a reversal occurs, and a successful rebound happens unexpectedly.

From a technical perspective, the daily chart has already formed a strong downward death cross with high continuity. Therefore, Kai Feng’s judgment is that the 5000 level may be tested with a possible break below, and this is not just a one-time opportunity. The golden cross and death cross on the four-hour chart are core trading signals. Whether medium-term, short-term, or long-term, only a four-hour golden cross indicates a relatively stable upward trend. Currently, the death cross has moved deep below the zero line, indicating a potential bottoming process. The previous support at around 4400 from the 5000 level could form a true bottom at any point within this range, but the current 5000 level cannot be considered the bottom. This Thursday, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and Chair Powell’s speech could be a turning point or a trap for a sharp decline. Opportunities often come with greater risks—please trade cautiously.

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Editor: Chen Ping