Kalshi markets show that the probability of U.S. lawmakers being banned from trading individual stocks before 2027 is only 15%, while the possibility of being banned by January 2029 is as high as 57%. Similar prediction markets on Polymarket show a 22% chance of being banned from trading individual stocks this year. Despite disclosure requirements under the 2012 STOCK Act, the trading activities of multiple lawmakers, including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, continue to attract close attention, and the debate remains ongoing.