Dutch TTF Natural Gas Price: Leading Brokers Share Their 2026 Outlook

Investing.com - The European natural gas market faces a volatile year. Bank of America expects the Dutch TTF price to average €50 per megawatt-hour in 2026, assuming limited disruptions to liquefied natural gas flows from the Gulf region.

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Analyst Francisco Blanch wrote: “If President Trump quickly declares victory and allows the U.S. Navy to protect LNG ships passing through the strait, limiting Qatar and UAE LNG losses to about 5 to 6 weeks, then the TTF could average €50 per megawatt-hour this year.”

Bank of America estimates that Qatar and UAE lose about 10% of their monthly LNG supply, which accounts for roughly 10% of Europe’s total gas storage. This suggests that prolonged disruptions could put serious pressure on the market.

According to Bank of America, “a loss of about 10 weeks of Gulf LNG supply could push the TTF price to break above 2022 highs in the first quarter of 2027,” potentially forcing Europe to seek additional supplies via idle routes like Yamal or through transit via Ukraine from Russia.

However, under the bank’s base scenario, the conflict will ease, and energy flows will “normalize by April.”

The outlook after 2026 is relatively calm. Bank of America expects Dutch natural gas prices to fall to €30 per megawatt-hour in 2027, as oversupply reemerges.

Broader conflicts still cast a shadow over the global energy balance.

With the Strait of Hormuz “effectively closed” and assets under pressure, Bank of America notes that Brent crude oil and TTF prices have recently surged. The bank has raised its 2026 Brent crude forecast to $77.50 per barrel. It also added that, amid widespread refinery difficulties, diesel crack spreads could average $30 per barrel this year.

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