March 12 Member Morning Report: Iran warns of $200 oil prices, Trump insists the war will end "soon"

1. [Iran Warns of $200 Oil Price] The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warns to “prepare for $200 per barrel oil prices.” Reports say the organization attacked three commercial ships along this route on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the Iranian president stated that the war can only end if the U.S. and Israel acknowledge Iran’s rights, guarantee no future aggression, and pay reparations.

2. [Trump Insists War Will End “Soon”] Meanwhile, Trump firmly stated in a recent interview that the war will “end soon” because “there are practically no targets left to hit.”

3. [Apple Foldable iPhone to Launch Later This Year] According to insiders cited by media, this long-anticipated foldable iPhone will feature an inward-folding display roughly the size of an iPad mini. It will also have an external screen similar in size to a small iPhone. The launch of the foldable iPhone this fall will mark seven years since Samsung’s first foldable phone release.

Comment: Apple’s usual strategy is to wait for competitors to validate the category and reveal flaws, then enter with a more refined product and dominate the market. IDC predicts that after Apple’s entry, the foldable phone market will grow 30-50% by 2026. Apple is expected to capture 22% of shipments and 34% of market value in the first year. JPMorgan forecasts that by 2028, Apple could sell 45 million foldable phones annually, representing about $65 billion in revenue. Risks include initial capacity possibly only 3-5 million units, limited contribution to revenue despite high demand; Polymarket estimates a 76% probability of release in 2026, indicating a chance of delay until 2027.

4. [Trump “Loosens” Oil Reserve Release] On March 11, U.S. President Trump announced he would use the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve to ease soaring oil prices caused by the Iran conflict. During a visit to Cincinnati, he said, “We will do that, then refill it. For now, we will slightly reduce it to lower oil prices.”

5. [Elon Musk Announces Tesla and xAI Joint Project] On Wednesday, March 11, Eastern Time, Musk posted on his social media that Tesla and his AI startup xAI will jointly develop a new AI project called “Digital Optimus,” also known as Macrohard, aimed at creating AI agents capable of automating software tasks.