How the Iran War Could Affect Your Summer Airfare: What You Need to Know and When to Book

Key Takeaways

• Jet fuel prices are up more than a third since the Iran war began, driving up airline costs and fares.
• Airlines are repricing summer flights now, so waiting to book may mean paying higher fares.

Book your summer flights now. That’s the advice of travel experts watching the cascading effects on airline fares from the Iran war.

Jet fuel has climbed more than a third above its prewar price, and airlines are already repricing summer routes in real time. United Airlines (UAL) CEO Scott Kirby warned the hit to ticket prices would “probably start quick.” Airfares were already increasing before hostilities began, jumping 6.5% in January alone. Now carriers are layering on fuel surcharges for international routes and hiking business-class fares first, knowing those travelers won’t blink.

The summer booking window you’d normally wait for—that 15-to-45-day sweet spot before departure—is probably too late this year, travel experts warn. Waiting is a gamble not just on unpredictable events in the Middle East but that airlines will lower prices they’re likely to raise in the meantime.

Why This Matters To You

Airlines don’t absorb fuel shocks—they pass them to passengers. With jet fuel still more than a third above prewar prices, the fares you see today on summer routes are likely lower than the ones you’ll see next month.

How the Iran War Is Boosting Fares

Fuel is an airline’s second-largest operating cost after labor, eating up 20% to 30% of expenses. The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow channel between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula, normally carries about a fifth of the world’s oil supply. Since the U.S. and Israeli strikes began on Feb. 28, commercial traffic through the strait has virtually ceased. Jet fuel, which was trading at $2.50 on Feb. 27, briefly hit $3.95 on March 5 before retreating to $3.40 by March 10.

That jump reflects more than the crude oil price. At a press briefing in Lima on Tuesday, Willie Walsh, Director General of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), said the increase in aviation fuel costs has been “significantly greater” than the rise in crude alone. The gap between what refiners charge over the cost of crude oil, called the crack spread, has more than doubled recently, Walsh said, and is far higher than for other fuels.

According to Skift Research, that means airlines face $24 billion in extra fuel expenses and would need to raise fares by at least 10% to cover them.

Fares are already moving. Most initial hikes have hit premium cabins—business and first class—because airlines know those travelers are less price-sensitive. Some carriers are tacking fuel surcharges onto long-haul international routes, and airlines in Asia have already raised prices by about 15% for these flights.

U.S. carriers are sensitive to jumps in fuel prices. Unlike many European and Asian airlines, American (AAL), United (UAL) and Delta (DAL) don’t hedge their fuel costs, meaning every shift in oil prices hits them directly.

The War Moves Up the Booking Window

Data from Expedia and Google Flights suggests in a typical year fares for summer travel bottom out about 15 to 45 days out for domestic flights and 49 or more days out for international.

Under normal conditions, that would mean waiting until May or June to book July travel—but nothing is normal now. Airline systems are repricing summer fares right now in response to the fuel shock, meaning the lower-cost window you’d typically wait for may not materialize.

Delay too long, and you’re competing with late-booking business travelers whose companies cover the cost, with fares reflecting that. Plus, airline systems adjust future bookings constantly, and analysts expect July and August fares to be repriced within two to four weeks.

Brett Snyder, founder of the airline industry site Cranky Flier, said that international travelers shouldn’t hold off: “We are getting into the window for good summer fares for long-haul flying now.” But those flying domestically “can probably wait a bit,” he said.

Tip

Expedia’s 2026 data shows that Friday is now both the cheapest day to depart domestically, while August, when many schools open for the fall, is the cheapest month to fly, running about 12% below peak summer fares.

If Oil Falls, Will Tickets Follow? Probably Not Fast Enough

Don’t count on a price drop coming. Snyder told Investopedia that airlines have little incentive to lower fares even if lower fuel prices allow it: “The last thing they want to do is take too many tickets at a low fare and run out of seats later on when they cut capacity.”

Airlines rarely pass on fuel savings to passengers when demand is strong, and summer demand is strong, despite the geopolitics. IATA data for early 2026 show global passenger traffic still growing, with many routes at pre-pandemic levels—giving carriers less reason to cut prices. The only scenario where fares would fall fast is a demand collapse, and high oil prices weighing down the economy would hurt consumers in other ways.

Related Eduction

Turn Your Spare Change into Airfare: Travel Hacking with Micro-Investing Apps

When Is It Cheaper to Fly to Hawaii?

So what should you do in this uncertain environment?

• Book now, but get a refundable fare class: If prices drop before your trip, you can rebook at the lower rate.
• Fly Friday: Expedia’s 2026 data shows it’s the cheapest day to depart domestically.
• Consider August: Many schools now return before Labor Day, making early August about 12% cheaper than peak June and July fares, according to Expedia.
• Set a Google airfare price alert: You’ll know immediately if the market moves in your favor.
• But don’t overthink it: “It’s not worth playing a game to see if fares may or may not go up or down a little,” Snyder said. “If the fare is something you’re willing to pay, then pull the trigger and be happy that you’re going on vacation.”

Do you have a news tip for Investopedia reporters? Please email us at

[email protected]