Why Is the SPY ETF Down Today, 3/11/2026?

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY -0.13% ▼ fell 0.13% today, March 11, due to a combination of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, rising oil prices, and investor concern regarding inflation.

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Importantly, SPY closely tracks the S&P 500 Index (SPX), which was down 0.08% in the regular trading session, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 (NDX) was up 0.03%.

Key Catalysts That Can Move SPY ETF

The SPY ETF is expected to experience volatility, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a key inflation report.

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, will be released on Friday. Although this is a delayed report for January, it remains a critical data point for long-term policy expectations.

Further, Q4 GDP (First Revision) will also be released later this week. Markets are looking for a revision to the 1.5% growth rate. Any downward revision could spark “slow growth” fears. In addition, the JOLTS Job Openings report on Friday will provide a deeper look into labor demand (job vacancies) for January.

Also, key earnings reports from Adobe ADBE -0.52% ▼ , Lennar LEN -2.18% ▼ , and Dollar General DG -0.79% ▼ are expected to influence market sentiment this week.

Fund Flows and Sentiment

SPY’s five-day net outflows totaled $3 billion, showing that investors pulled out capital from the ETF over the past five trading days. Meanwhile, its three-month average trading volume is 83.55 million shares.

It must be noted that the retail sentiment for the SPY ETF is positive, and hedge fund managers have increased their holdings of the ETF in the last quarter.

SPY’s Price Forecast

According to TipRanks’ unique ETF analyst consensus, which is based on a weighted average of analyst ratings on its holdings, SPY has a Moderate Buy rating. The Street’s average price target of $830.31 for the SPY ETF implies an upside potential of 22.77%.

Currently, SPY’s five holdings with the highest upside potential are:

• Oracle ORCL +9.18% ▲

• ServiceNow NOW -0.84% ▼

• Fair Isaac FICO -9.33% ▼

• KKR KKR -3.15% ▼

• Robinhood HOOD +0.20% ▲

Meanwhile, its five holdings with the greatest downside potential are:

• Moderna MRNA +1.80% ▲

• APA Corp. APA +3.61% ▲

• Archer-Daniels-Midland ADM +2.08% ▲

• CF Industries CF +9.16% ▲

• Comfort Systems FIX +1.71% ▲

Revealingly, SPY’s ETF Smart Score is seven, implying that this ETF is likely to perform in line with the broader market over the long term.

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