JPMorgan Upgrades Oracle Stock (ORCL) to Buy on Improved Risk/Reward

FomoAnxiety · 2026-03-11T21:22:00+00:00

Oracle's stock surged over 9% after strong Q3 FY26 results and an increased revenue forecast. Analyst Mark Murphy upgraded the stock to Buy despite lowering the price target, citing improved risk/reward following a severe selloff.

FomoAnxiety

2026-03-11 21:22:00

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Oracle ORCL +9.18% ▲ stock gained more than 9% on Wednesday, as the software and cloud computing company reported upbeat Q3 FY26 results and raised its revenue guidance for Fiscal 2026. Following the Q3 print, JPMorgan analyst Mark Murphy upgraded his rating for ORCL stock to Buy from Hold but lowered the price target to $210 from $230, saying “severe selloff improves risk/reward against backdrop of thick investor pessimism.”

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JPMorgan Turns Bullish on Oracle Stock

Murphy noted that his upgrade follows a significant selloff in Oracle stock since mid-September, which he believes de-risks valuation. The 4-star analyst said that he also considered the shift in investor sentiment from strong confidence to widespread pessimism about Oracle’s ability to achieve its FY30 targets, execute the OpenAI ramp, and raise debt, which has lowered the overall expectations bar.

Furthermore, Murphy noted that Oracle successfully raised $25 billion in debt last month, which he thinks might ease some “potentially overblown CDS-tracking and related debt rating concerns,” and removes the need for any incremental bond issuance in 2026. The analyst stated that there is additional evidence of Oracle’s ability to accelerate revenue growth rapidly and approach a growth phase while still increasing operating income in the double digits.

Interestingly, Murphy highlighted some key caveats:

The upgrade is not dependent on Oracle achieving its long-term targets.
Margin structure is difficult to model, with significant gross margin compression offset by notable operating margin discipline.
OpenAI still represents a large part of Oracle’s remaining performance obligations (RPO), and concentration risk remains.

Finally, the analyst discussed the company’s solid Q3 FY26 results and emphasized that heading into earnings, he had explicitly stated, “Don’t Underestimate Oracle’s Resolve to Weather the Current
Storm and Show Acceleration.”

Is Oracle a Good Stock to Buy?

Overall, Wall Street has a Strong Buy consensus rating on Oracle stock based on 28 Buys and four Holds. The average ORCL stock price target of $256.57 indicates 57.3% upside potential from current levels.

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