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Every conflict involving Trump follows the same script.

According to Xinhua News Agency, on the 9th local time, Trump discussed the Iran conflict in Miami: he believes the war will “end soon,” but “not” this week. The statement sounds ambiguous, but if you’ve been tracking his approach to geopolitical conflicts, you’ll recognize it as a familiar signal—negotiation conditions are quietly taking shape.

This is precisely the seventh step described in The Kobeissi Letter—an indication of conditional de-escalation. After the market has begun to seriously price in a “longer fight,” a conditional cooling tone appears—not a retreat, but a test of whether opponents and markets can withstand the next escalation.

The independent macro market research newsletter, The Kobeissi Letter, systematically reviewed every geopolitical and trade conflict Trump has been involved in since taking office in January 2025, from tariffs, the arrest of Maduro in Venezuela, Greenland negotiations, to the current Iran conflict. The negotiation logic Trump follows in handling these conflicts is highly consistent.

This research has organized Trump’s conflict approach into a complete 10-step “conflict script”: from verbal pressure and posturing, to favoring key actions on Friday nights, to risk premiums spreading across stocks, bonds, and commodities, culminating in a “deal” that triggers sharp market re-pricing. Over the next 2 to 4 weeks, the firm presents three scenarios, with the most likely outcome still being an agreement—yet before that, markets may endure another round of pain.

Steps 1 to 3: From Verbal Pressure to “Friday Night Strike”

Trump’s conflicts often don’t start with the first missile or tariff but with language pressure aimed at forcing the other side to make concessions.

The Kobeissi Letter defines the starting point of Trump’s conflict pattern as verbal pressure. Take the Iran conflict as an example: the first strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities occurred on February 28, but two months earlier, Trump had posted multiple times on Truth Social claiming “a large fleet is heading toward Iran,” and kept urging Iran to “reach an agreement.”

The report notes that this pattern is also clear in Venezuela and EU tariff cases: over a month before acting against Venezuela, Trump announced closing its airspace; before imposing tariffs on the EU, he threatened Denmark and claimed “it’s time” to acquire Greenland.

Step 2 involves strategic posturing and displays of strength, including military deployments and public coordination with allies, aiming to reinforce credibility without triggering full-scale conflict. For example, in August 2025, Trump met with Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan—after Trump publicly demanded his resignation, the two reached an agreement for the government to buy a 10% stake, which yielded over 80% paper gains in less than two months.

Step 3 is the hallmark “Friday Night Strike.” The Kobeissi Letter found that major actions by Trump are highly concentrated on Friday nights through early Saturday morning, including: the June 21 joint US-Israel airstrike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, the September 1 attack on Caribbean drug ships, the October 10 threat of 100% tariffs on China, the November 29 closure of Venezuela’s airspace, Nigeria military operations on December 25, and the February 28 airstrike on Iran.

Why always strike on Friday nights? The report suggests that if major news breaks during trading hours, liquidity can instantly dry up, algorithms amplify volatility, and panic spreads. Announcing on Friday night gives investors, institutions, and governments the weekend to digest the news.

More importantly, Trump is highly sensitive to market volatility—he needs a time window to observe reactions and leave room for negotiations. According to this script, after a Friday night action, Trump often hints at the possibility of a “deal” before the futures open that week. In this Iran case, that signal did not appear.

Steps 4 to 6: How Markets Are “Educated”

After Step 3, the research divides typical market reactions into three layers:

Step 4: Shock occurs, but markets initially bet on a “quick resolution.” The report describes a common pattern: on Sunday night (Eastern Time 18:00), markets fluctuate sharply, but before Monday’s cash open, some moves are “reversed” as investors assume Trump prefers to trade and conflicts won’t last long. For example, on March 2, WTI crude temporarily retraced about 70% of its gains, the S&P 500 even turned green, but these moves were later reversed, with oil prices hitting new highs and stocks hitting new lows.

Step 5: Trump uses language like “long fight is okay” to reverse market optimism. After investors buy the dip, markets often face a counterattack. On March 2, Trump publicly stated “the war can go on forever,” claiming the US has “unlimited mid-to-high-end weapons.” The Kobeissi Letter interprets this “forever” statement as more of a negotiation tactic—showing the upper limit he can tolerate, not a true desire for prolonged war.

Step 6: Markets begin to formally price in “a longer duration.” As of March 3, the report’s writing, Brent crude surpassed $85 per barrel for the first time in nearly two years; the Dow Jones dropped over 1,100 points in a single day; stocks hit weekly lows, with defensive capital flowing out. This phase marks a structural shift in market psychology—“the first decline is bought because investors expect an agreement; the second decline is bought because they see the escalation as temporary; the third decline signals a fundamental change in positions.”

Steps 7 to 8: Downgrade Signals and Market Feedback Loops

Step 7 is the appearance of conditional downgrade signals, corresponding to Trump’s latest comments on the 9th. The Kobeissi Letter emphasizes that the time window between Step 6 and 7 is “highly uncertain”—in the 2025 tariff war, this transition took months, ultimately triggered by a sharp rise in US Treasury yields before the tariffs “paused” on April 9.

The report notes that historically, catalysts that trigger Trump to back off are either the target actively seeking “a deal” or market structural breaks. In the Iran case, such catalysts could be the fall of the Iranian government or events with structural impacts on the US and global economy.

Step 8 is the feedback loop between markets and politics. Financial markets have become part of the negotiation environment, as oil prices, stocks, and inflation expectations influence political narratives.

Trump’s three policy priorities are: to be a “peace president,” to curb inflation, and to lower US gasoline prices. This implies that prolonged oil price increases conflict with his goals, especially in key midterm election years.

JPMorgan estimates that a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could push oil prices to $120–130 per barrel and cause US CPI inflation to spike around 5%. They set three key thresholds: Brent above $90, a 5% or more drop in stocks, and gasoline prices rising over 10%. “When these thresholds are reached, the probability of headlines related to negotiations will significantly increase.”

Steps 9 to 10: Deal Announcements and Violent Repricing

Step 9 involves reaching an agreement and constructing the narrative. The Kobeissi Letter states that every major confrontation within Trump’s framework ends with “maximum pressure for concessions,” whether trade deals with China, the EU, India, or negotiations with Intel, rare earths, or conflicts Trump helped resolve by 2025.

Regarding Iran, the report suggests that if the Iranian government does not fall, the final deal might involve a ceasefire linked to nuclear issues, regional security arrangements with enforcement mechanisms, or sanctions adjustments conditioned on compliance. “The specific structure matters far more than timing or narrative.”

Step 10 is the violent market re-pricing and political victory declaration. The Kobeissi Letter emphasizes that market re-pricing after an agreement is often sudden rather than gradual, because investors are generally in defensive positions—energy exposure high, stocks risk-averse, volatility elevated due to implicit uncertainty.

Once uncertainty dissipates suddenly, these positions are quickly unwound. The report cites historical cases from April, August, October 2025, and January 2026, showing that after tariffs are paused or frameworks announced, stocks surge sharply, and oil prices fall rapidly as shipping channel reopenings are anticipated.

Future 2–4 weeks: Three paths—“Deals Return to the Table”

The Kobeissi Letter sketches three scenarios for the upcoming two to four weeks:

Scenario 1: Short-term escalation intensifies, oil prices rise, stocks fall, then a sudden appearance of negotiation language causes markets to reverse sharply due to overly defensive positions.

Scenario 2: Conflict continues in a controlled but sustained manner, with oil prices remaining high but not spiking dramatically, stocks waiting in high volatility for clarity, and an agreement reached later this month under ongoing pressure.

Scenario 3: Regional escalation expands significantly, including substantial disruptions to shipping lanes or more direct involvement by additional actors, pushing oil prices into triple digits, with deeper repricing of global risk assets. Given historical precedents and the current midterm election cycle, this scenario has a lower probability but is not impossible.

Regardless of the path, the common theme of this outlook is clear: Trump dislikes “forever wars,” and is more adept at pushing conflicts to leverage points where he can then craft a “deal.” The Kobeissi Letter concludes: “Never forget, since taking office nearly 13 months ago, every conflict Trump has been involved in has ended with a deal. Trump is a dealmaker—follow the pattern, and you will profit.”

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