Zhang Yaoxi: Geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns ease, gold prices remain bullish on dips

Zhang Yaoxi: Geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns ease, gold prices remain bullish on dips
On the previous trading day, Monday (March 9): International gold opened sharply higher at $5,179.47 due to increased geopolitical risks over the weekend. Oil prices surged over 30% at the open, fueling inflation fears. Gold initially reached an intraday high of $5,197.18, then declined to a daily low of $5,014.22 after a rally.
Subsequently, supported by buying interest, the US dollar index, which had opened strongly, fell back and turned negative after Trump claimed the Iran conflict was essentially over. Oil prices also fell sharply, closing the gap from the opening and turning lower, easing inflation worries and helping gold rebound, recovering most of its losses for the day. It finally closed at $5,136.45, with a daily range of $182.96. Compared to last Friday’s close of $5,170.13, it fell by $33.68, a 0.65% decline.
Looking ahead to Tuesday (March 10): International gold opened with sideways strength. The US dollar index and crude oil prices rose early, limiting gold’s upside. However, the dollar remains within recent trading ranges, and yesterday’s significant pullback in oil suggests some downside pressure for a rebound. Therefore, the market expects gold to fluctuate or weaken at higher levels, which could support gold prices.
Today, focus on US February NFIB Small Business Optimism Index and US February Existing Home Sales (annualized, in ten-thousands). Market expectations are mixed, with limited impact on gold. Key data to watch are Wednesday’s US February CPI and Friday’s PCE Price Index. If inflation remains high, gold could fall below $5,000. Conversely, if inflation data cools, gold may rebound above $5,200. Whether breaking support or resistance, both scenarios present buying opportunities.
Fundamentally, early in the week, rising Middle East tensions pushed oil prices near $120 per barrel, heightening inflation fears and raising expectations that the Fed might tighten further, reducing gold’s appeal as a safe haven and pressuring prices lower. However, Trump’s statement that Iran’s military actions will end soon eased inflation concerns, though he warned of harsher measures if Iran disrupts oil supplies. He also indicated some sanctions would be lifted to lower oil prices, so inflation fears are unlikely to intensify. Meanwhile, geopolitical uncertainties continue to support gold’s safe-haven demand.
In terms of trading strategy, gold can retrace to moving average supports for a bullish rebound.

Technically, on a monthly basis, gold has weakened so far this month but remains above the 5-month moving average and above the upward trendline broken in January, indicating a still-strong bullish outlook. Even if the month ends with a sideways or bearish pattern, the trend is expected to stay above the trendline with wide fluctuations, then resume upward movement.
If it breaks below the trendline and closes below $4,300, it signals a potential end to the bull market, with further declines toward $3,500 or lower.
On the weekly chart, last week’s resistance caused a pullback, with some bearish engulfing and hanging man patterns. The week opened with continued weakness but remains above the 10-week moving average, keeping the bullish advantage. As long as the weekly close stays above the 5-week moving average, bullish momentum could strengthen, pushing prices to new highs.
On the daily chart, gold repeatedly faces resistance at the 5- and 10-day moving averages and consolidates below them. The indicator signals remain bearish, suggesting some downside pressure, but prices have not broken below the 30-day moving average or the previous upward channel support, so short-term movement is likely to be sideways.

If support breaks downward, watch the 60-day moving average for a potential rebound to new highs. If prices hold above the 5-day moving average resistance, a bullish follow-up is possible, aiming for $5,300 or $5,400.

Gold: Support levels at around $5,100 or $5,070; resistance at about $5,180 or $5,210.
Silver: Support at approximately $85.50 or $84.00; resistance at around $89.40 or $91.70.
Note:
Gold TD = (International gold price × exchange rate) / 31.1035
A $1 fluctuation in international gold prices roughly equals a 0.25 yuan change in Gold TD (theoretical).
US futures gold price = London spot price × (1 + gold swap rate × days to expiry / 365)
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Reviewing historical cause and effect, interpreting current environment, and projecting future trends—adopting bold predictions with cautious trading principles. – Zhang Yaoxi
The above opinions and analysis reflect only the author’s personal views, for reference only, not trading advice. Trade at your own risk.

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