Trading Rules: Prioritize substance over form, and maintain reproducibility!

Since last year’s trade war, the resilience of the index has remained strong, with a consistent upward trend and a slow bull market tone.

Even when faced with (black swan) negative news, the impact is usually short-term and does not change the overall trend, including this Middle East conflict. It’s easy to see the resilience of A-shares. On the first trading day after the conflict began, the index was barely affected, opening low and rising higher, but after hours, the conflict continued and tensions increased. It would be impolite for the large A-shares not to decline, so they followed with a two-day dip, then stabilized roughly afterward, with consecutive rebounds on Thursday and Friday.

Although the index is very resilient, market profitability is weak. Last week, there were few sustained themes, apart from conflict-related oil and gas, and later only one—electricity and computing power collaboration—that showed continuous strength. Overall, it’s hard to operate.

Last week’s trading: I didn’t participate much in new themes, avoiding oil and gas, “intelligent,” “optoelectronics,” etc. The concept of fighting is quite obvious; initially, I was not optimistic about its sustainability because the conflicts had been brewing beforehand. This consensus was not very strong, leading to weaker follow-through after the Monday surge. After a rebound, the market retreated again, then strengthened. As expected, the market always kills off consensus, favoring a few people. In the future, no matter the theme, we should avoid bias and prepare two plans in advance. I didn’t participate in new directions, nor did I catch the old ones like power. My holdings in computing power, Longlong, performed average. I was more optimistic about Runze Technology, which oscillated but still failed to break out. Based on current stock performance, I am quite disappointed. I caught the big upward move but lost all profits afterward.

Regarding the pattern of this stock: first, the computing power sector rebounded strongly after the holiday, exceeding expectations. The overall sector rhythm on February 26 was “divergence turning into consensus,” with Runze Technology opening high and rising sharply, confirming its position as a major player. From themes and capacity, Runze Technology had the potential to trend upward like BlueFocus or Wangsu, especially with a series of domestic computing power positive news, making a significant breakout quite likely. But perhaps luck was not on our side. The sector rhythm and stock expectations were forcibly reversed by external conflicts and overall market risk aversion. The recovery on Wednesday turned into a high-level retreat, Thursday’s gap-up was a profit-taking move, and Friday’s performance was below expectations, leading to a decision to unfollow.

For new positions on Friday, I considered three stocks but only took two: Taihao Technology and Meiliyun. Personally, I focused on Meiliyun during the bidding, which was transitioning from weak to strong, and it seems to have been a successful move.

Although last week’s performance was not great, and the Runze Technology trade is worth reflecting on, I don’t dwell on it too much. Missing opportunities or even losing money is not shameful; trading involves risk. The real danger is lacking the courage to start over and the spirit to continue fighting. Currently, pure day-trading arbitrage is becoming increasingly difficult to profit from. The breakthrough lies in the sustained rolling of large, high-volume, logical, and strong-trend stocks like Shenvie Communication, BlueFocus, Wangsu, and Tianfu Communication. Without rolling, you’re likely to sell prematurely or be manipulated. It’s foreseeable that if the market continues its slow bull trend, those best at trend-following and rolling will be among the easiest to make big money.

Some advice: 1. Believe that the slow bull trend will not change easily. 2. Improve your aesthetic judgment; focus on capacity stocks and high-volume trades, trade calmly, and ensure you can increase positions at key points with a good risk-reward ratio and some tolerance for losses. 3. Focus more on mainstream stocks; extend holding periods when the main upward trend or rising trend persists. 4. Prioritize substance over form. Whether it’s doing previous leading stocks, relay trading, day trading, or trend-following, the form and medium may change, but the speculative nature behind them remains. Many old strategies still work today; it’s just a matter of adjusting to current environments and styles. Always follow the pattern strictly—value substance over appearance. Trading rules: prioritize substance over form, and persistence is replicable!

II. Holiday news overview:

Over the weekend, the main developments were:

1. US-Iran conflict, with crude oil futures soaring to new highs; this trend requires early conviction. Those who didn’t participate earlier are less likely to gamble on it now.

2. “Raising ‘little lobsters’,” Open Clwa went viral, but this isn’t new. Veteran followers know this concept was quite promising when it first emerged. Back then, focus was on Youke, which was monitored on January 27th’s close, opening high the next day, but it didn’t break out then. A month later, it suddenly exploded?

3. Computing power and electricity collaboration. The news and logic are now fully transparent. Despite this, the fundamental logic of power shortages and computing deficits remains unprovable. Stock movements and sector rhythm tell all.

Other topics include the Two Sessions, future energy, commercial aerospace, and low-altitude economy. On Monday, the focus remains on how these themes, which have been heavily discussed, will perform.