Couche-Tard Unveils 6%–8% EBITDA CAGR Target Through 2030

Khac Phu Nguyen

Fri, February 13, 2026 at 4:25 AM GMT+9 2 min read

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ANCTF

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This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

Alimentation Couche-Tard (ANCTF) is tightening the lens and investors responded. Shares rose 3.1% to C$82.51 in Toronto, the highest close since 2024, after management unveiled a recalibrated long-term framework that leans more heavily on organic execution rather than near-term acquisitions. For fiscal 2026 through 2030, the company is guiding toward a 6% to 8% compounded annual growth rate in adjusted EBITDA, translating to $8 billion to $9 billion by the end of the cycle. That compares with the October 2023 objective of $10 billion by fiscal 2028, which had included more than $1 billion from M&A. CEO Alex Miller stressed that the company’s appetite for deals has not shifted, but noted that the timing of transactions is uncertain, making organic visibility a more grounded anchor for investors.

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The reset comes after a year where ambition met friction. Couche-Tard ended its 6.8 trillion ($44 billion) pursuit of Seven & i Holdings (SVNDY) in July, saying it could not secure serious engagement from the Japanese retailer a process that had weighed on the share price. Miller said he continues to believe the underlying thesis of that deal was sound, adding that, if anything, the company might have pulled the plug sooner. The group did close sizable transactions, including the $1.6 billion acquisition of 270 GetGo locations from Giant Eagle, though the US Federal Trade Commission required divestitures of 35 gas stations, and the 3.4 billion purchase of 2,175 gasoline stations in Europe from TotalEnergies. CFO Filipe Da Silva described the prior $10 billion EBITDA target as aspirational, suggesting the updated outlook is designed to provide greater flexibility.

Operationally, management acknowledged that softer consumer activity and shifting habits in recent years were not fully anticipated, prompting adjustments such as reducing the number of food offerings. With nearly 17,300 stores globally, Couche-Tard is now emphasizing its core engines fuel, nicotine and beverages while reinvesting in food, cost discipline and cash management. The company has nearly doubled investments over the past five years in technology that could allow customers to pay by placing items on an electronic platform. Electric vehicle charging is set to represent 15% of capital expenditures, focused in Europe, where deployments continue in Scandinavia and are expanding into Germany, Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands. Miller said the company is not allocating EV capital in North America for now, citing Europe’s more mature dynamics and higher average usage per charger, which could support incremental in-store spending as customers wait.

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