CICC: The risk of "quasi-stagflation" in the United States further increases

CycleProphet · 2026-03-10T00:27:58+00:00

CICC, in its 2026 macro outlook report, pointed out that the U.S. economy faces a "quasi-stagflation" risk. Influenced by rising oil prices, structural inflation, AI impacts, and private credit risks, economic growth will slow down, risk premiums in the capital markets will rise, and capital allocation will become more focused on risk avoidance.

CycleProphet

2026-03-10 00:27:58

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Deep Tide TechFlow News, March 10 — According to Jin10 Data, China International Capital Corporation (CICC) stated in its 2026 macro outlook report that the biggest risk facing the U.S. economy is “quasi-stagflation.” Recent developments suggest this assessment is being validated and further reinforced. On one hand, the US-Iran conflict has driven up oil prices, and the inflationary drivers are increasingly shifting toward structural factors, which may cause inflation stickiness to persist. On the other hand, the substitution effect of AI on white-collar jobs is beginning to show, suppressing employment expansion momentum; meanwhile, risks in private credit are rising, and once the industry enters a cleanup phase, financial conditions could tighten, potentially dragging on economic growth.

On the policy front, the Federal Reserve faces a dilemma. CICC believes that the timing of rate cuts may be delayed until the second half of the year. The stimulative effect of tax cuts has been somewhat offset by tariff hikes and increased household savings, so the actual boost may be lower than expected. Against this backdrop, US economic growth is expected to slow, risk premiums in capital markets are trending upward, and capital allocation logic may shift from chasing yields to emphasizing risk avoidance.

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