Many people have been asking recently: why is $BTC rising while the US stock market is falling and oil prices are fluctuating?

In the past couple of days, a very important piece of news has emerged—the G7 is discussing whether to release strategic oil reserves to suppress oil prices. After the news broke, market inflation expectations began to decline, and once inflation pressures ease, funds naturally flow back into risk assets. This is also why BTC has started to rebound slightly after the news was announced.

Let's take a look at oil prices themselves.
Although there are voices in the market suggesting oil could surge to $200, the reality on the charts is different. Currently, WTI crude oil has fallen below $100, trading around $98. The reason is simple—markets are preemptively trading the expectation of "releasing strategic reserves." Once supply increases, oil prices will naturally be suppressed.

The performance of the US stock market also illustrates this point.
The Nasdaq narrowed from a pre-market decline of -1.5% to around -0.4%, and the S&P is only about -0.6%. This indicates that funds are not panic-selling but are waiting for clearer policy signals.

Oil prices are the most critical variable in this round of market volatility.
When inflation expectations decline, risk assets get a breather; when inflation rises again, the market will come under pressure once more.

The key timing to watch is this Wednesday (Beijing time) during the energy ministers' meeting. Currently, all news is just expectations; the actual policies have not yet been implemented.

The market is likely to operate around two scenarios:

First: Release of strategic oil reserves
Oil prices fall → Inflation expectations decline → Risk assets recover → Short-term positive for BTC

Second: Do not release reserves
Oil prices spike rapidly → Inflationary pressure increases → US stocks come under pressure → Crypto markets also pull back

Because, at this stage, oil prices are the overall market sentiment indicator, the Wednesday meeting will be the key factor influencing BTC's short-term trend.