[US Stock Market] Three B52 Bombers Have Arrived in the UK, Heavy Bombing Possible, G7 Fails to Reach Consensus on Releasing Oil Reserves, Oil Prices Up 10% (Updating)

According to BBC reports, U.S. B-52 and B-1 heavy bombers are gathered at Royal Air Force Fairford Base in the UK. Today, three B-52 bombers have landed, marking the first time B-52s have appeared in the UK since the outbreak of the conflict.

The B-52 heavy bomber is a typical example of U.S. “frontline deployment,” signaling that large-scale air campaigns are about to commence or that existing conflicts are about to escalate sharply. As a heavily armed “old yellow cow,” once enemy air defenses are weakened, the B-52 can deliver large quantities of conventional ground-attack munitions, conducting destructive sustained strikes on enemy infrastructure, industrial targets, or large ground forces.

The market is awaiting an emergency meeting of G7 finance ministers to discuss a coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves led by the International Energy Agency (IEA) to address the surge in oil prices following the Gulf conflict. As of 2022, IEA member countries hold over 1.2 billion barrels of emergency oil reserves controlled by governments, mostly crude oil.

According to IEA regulations, all member countries must maintain emergency oil reserves equivalent to at least 90 days of net imports. This government-controlled stockpile must ensure that the country can sustain at least three months under normal consumption.

The Iran conflict has driven oil prices higher, with Brent crude rising nearly 30%, approaching $120 per barrel at one point. The gains have since narrowed, with the latest increase around 10%, hovering near $100.

The three major U.S. stock indices declined, with the Dow Jones falling 886 points to 46,615, the S&P 500 down 1.5% to 6,638, and the Nasdaq dropping 1.4% to 22,084.

The U.S. dollar index rose 0.5%, temporarily at 99.35, breaking above 99 again; market concerns about rising inflation due to soaring oil prices have decreased the likelihood of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The U.S. long-term Treasury yield continues to rise, currently at 4.175%. Gold prices remain troubled by inflation fears, falling 2% to around $5,071.

Tech stocks weakened, with Tesla (US: TSLA) down nearly 4%, Amazon (US: AMZN) and Meta (US: META) both falling over 2%.

Additionally, U.S. markets have entered daylight saving time, opening one hour earlier at 9:30 p.m. Hong Kong time.

Credit Suisse notes that the oil market has entered a panic state, with prices fluctuating into triple digits, mainly driven by market sentiment, as the conflict itself has not seen any substantial major changes. So far, supply disruptions are mainly due to cautious ships avoiding the Strait of Hormuz, causing trade disruptions rather than military blockades. However, it is expected that this week and beyond, Middle Eastern oil supplies could face shutdowns of up to 75%.

The bank states it will continue to closely monitor the situation. Currently, there is no substantial damage to energy infrastructure, and Iran’s military strength appears to be weakening. Solutions ensuring the safe passage of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remain feasible. Amid the fog of war, it reaffirms a neutral stance on oil and natural gas, maintaining the basic expectation that energy prices will peak at current or slightly higher levels.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updating. For details, see: Next page

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Market Highlights:

【18:20】Dow futures down 492 points, Nasdaq futures down 1.1%. Oil surges over 10%, breaking $100. Markets open one hour earlier for daylight saving time.

【12:07】Dow futures down 1,006 points, at 46,511; S&P 500 futures down 130 points, at 6,613; Nasdaq futures down 542 points, or 2.2%, at 24,127.

【12:07】【Iran Crisis】Iran conflict impacts financial markets. Senior strategist Yardeni: Probability of a market crash in the U.S. before year-end increases to 35%.

【11:15】【700】Tencent reportedly plans to acquire Warner Bros. via a multi-billion dollar deal with Paramount.

【10:33】【Iran Crisis】Oil prices break $100, with NYMEX crude soaring 30%, as major Middle Eastern oil producers cut output.

【10:20】【Iran Crisis】Oil prices surge, dragging down Asia-Pacific markets. “Black Monday” hits Japan and South Korea, both down over 7%. South Korea reportedly considers implementing oil price caps.

【09:56】【Iran Crisis】JPMorgan: Middle Eastern oil capacity expected to decrease by 4 million barrels per day by next weekend.

【09:50】【Iran Crisis】Schroders’ Alex Tedder: Oil may reach $100; “I won’t reduce energy holdings in the next two or three years.”

【08:17】【Iran Crisis】Gold drops over 2%, testing $5,000, as oil prices spike, fueling inflation fears.

【07:30】【Iran Crisis】Black Monday begins, oil prices up 20%, surpassing $111. Trump: “Small cost,” Dow futures plunge 1,112 points (updating continuously).

【07:30】【Global Outlook】Focus on Middle East conflict and U.S. inflation data. Markets open one hour earlier for daylight saving time.

【07:30】Concerns over oil supply disruptions and worse-than-expected U.S. employment data caused a major sell-off last Friday. Dow fell 945 points to 47,009; the VIX volatility index surged 21.6% to 28.88. The Dow closed down 453 points, S&P 500 down 1.33%, Nasdaq down 1.59%.

See U.S. market close for details:

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Last week’s U.S. market activity, details at: 【U.S. Market Close】 Iran fires missiles at “Lincoln” again, Brent surpasses $92, weak jobs cause Dow to fall 453 points, Nasdaq down 1.6%

		Financial Hot Topics
	





	Will Middle East conflict threaten oil supply and push prices over $100? Could this impact the global economy?