JPMorgan: Expected Middle Eastern oil production shutdown to exceed 4 million barrels per day by the end of next weekend

K-LinePoet · 2026-03-09T13:58:21+00:00

JPMorgan report forecasts that due to saturated storage facilities and transportation bottlenecks, Middle Eastern oil outages will exceed 4 million barrels per day by next weekend. If Iran experiences disruptions, potential losses could reach 1.5 million barrels per day, with overall supply losses surpassing 8 million barrels per day. The consumer market will experience noticeable shortages within a week.

K-LinePoet

2026-03-09 13:58:21

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A report released by JPMorgan on March 8th states that due to ongoing saturation of storage facilities and transportation bottlenecks, Middle Eastern oil production is expected to surge above 4 million barrels per day by next weekend. JPMorgan’s commodities strategy team indicated that any disruption on Kharg Island, which accounts for about 90% of Iran’s oil exports, could result in an additional loss of 1 to 1.5 million barrels per day. Overall, the total supply loss in the region could reach at least 5 million barrels per day, and when including refined oil products, the total loss could exceed 8 million barrels per day. Regarding the expected order of production halts, JPMorgan analysts noted that while Iran was previously expected to be the last country to cease production, the current pace may surpass Kuwait and the UAE. The report states that as inventories before the conflict are depleted and new cargo loading stalls, the consumer market is expected to experience significant supply shortages within a week.

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