Currently, the overall market trend in the crypto space can be summarized as: a sharp rise must be followed by a sharp decline, as a way to "lure the prey in," otherwise the main players can't "leave with dignity."

The core principle is simple: big money wants to sell at high prices, so someone has to buy at high prices. When large holders have too much inventory, they can't just dump everything without causing a crash; the price will plummet immediately. So they play a trick: use a sudden surge to create the illusion of a "continuing bull market, about to take off," tricking the last hesitant, trapped, or panic-selling investors into buying in. Once most of the supply is sold, they immediately turn around and dump, leaving retail investors holding the bag at the top. This isn't a conspiracy; it's an opportunistic use of human greed.

The several scenarios you mentioned are actually the same:
1. Inducing a surge to sell off: the classic tactic, as described above.
2. Dead cat bounce: after a long decline, a slight positive news triggers short covering and retail bottom-fishing, causing a rebound. But the root problem isn't solved, so the rebound is just a wave of panic selling.
3. Short squeeze reversal: short sellers can't stand the rise, are forced to cover and buy in, pushing the price up. Once these "forced buyers" are done, without real capital backing, the price drops sharply.
4. Sideways accumulation with fake breakouts: like at the end of 2018, when the market stayed sideways for too long, both bulls and bears got exhausted. Eventually, leverage positions explode, leading to a collapse. Sideways trading itself is a form of consumption; no need for a sharp rise to induce a trap. Fake breakouts at the upper boundary have already deceived many.

This pattern is exactly the same as the "changing luck" cycle you mentioned—it's very insightful:
• Before a big misfortune, you'll first feel like you're on top of the world. Everything goes well, you feel destined for greatness, use up all your good luck, leverage up, and become overconfident. At this peak, a sudden fall can be the hardest hit.
• Before a big stroke of luck, you'll first experience extreme misfortune. Nothing goes right, efforts are wasted, and you're pushed down to the bottom, stripped of all burdens, arrogance, and old debts. At this lowest point, just a slight movement can lead to upward progress, and you'll be lighter and more agile.

So, once you understand this:
• When the market (or life) shows an abnormal, frenzied, and seemingly effortless "surge," be cautious. It’s likely not a blessing from heaven but a "death knell" signaling the end of the trend. Don't get caught up; it's time to take profits and exit.
• When you're in a long, painful, and seemingly hopeless downtrend or trough, don't despair. It might be a bottoming process, accumulating strength for the next wave.

In summary:
Prosperity is followed by decline; adversity leads to fortune. A sharp rise is an invitation to a sharp fall, and the abyss is the starting point for takeoff. Stay clear-headed during the excitement, and hold onto confidence during the quiet—this is the wisdom of living wisely. $BTC #比特币重回跌势