NVIDIA Q4 earnings report coming soon, four key highlights to watch in advance

On February 25 after the U.S. stock market closes, AI giant NVIDIA will release its latest earnings report, with the earnings call scheduled for 2:00 PM Pacific Time on February 25, which is 6:00 AM Beijing Time on February 26.

Sideways trading for months, stock response may still be muted

As a core player in the U.S. stock AI sector, NVIDIA previously exceeded analyst expectations in its third quarter, with revenue reaching $57.01 billion, up 62.5% year-over-year. At that time, its forecast for Q4 revenue was $65 billion, with a ±2% range; GAAP gross margin was expected to be 74.8%, with a ±0.5% range. Over the past 30 days, analysts tracking NVIDIA’s performance have reaffirmed their strong growth outlook.

However, although market expectations for the earnings report are generally optimistic, analysts believe the stock may still react mildly. The real catalyst might be the NVIDIA GTC (GPU Technology Conference) in March.

“From a fundamental perspective, NVIDIA’s story remains strong, but the question is whether market sentiment can keep up,” said Matt Stucky, Chief Equity Investment Officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management.

Investors are facing a typical “expectation paradox.” While the market generally expects NVIDIA to raise guidance for the coming quarters, historical data shows that after the last two earnings releases, NVIDIA’s stock was sold off.

As an undisputed pillar of the recent U.S. stock bull market, NVIDIA’s stock has been sideways for months. Since Q4 last year, its stock has only risen 1.7%, underperforming the S&P 500’s 3.3% gain during the same period; since the start of 2026, NVIDIA’s returns have fallen into the lower half of the S&P 500. This year, NVIDIA’s stock has gained only about 2%, far behind the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index’s 16% increase.

Core issues for investors this earnings season include the competitive landscape of AI chips, rising costs of memory chips impacting gross margins, and the capital expenditure trends of large cloud providers.

Four key points of the earnings report

According to multiple Wall Street investment banks, there are four main highlights to watch in NVIDIA’s earnings.

First is the demand diversity in data center business. Currently, Wall Street is concerned that high capital expenditures by U.S. tech giants could trigger a chain reaction. If NVIDIA’s management clarifies that its data center growth covers a diverse customer base—including hyperscale cloud providers, enterprise clients, and sovereign AI projects—rather than focusing on a few large buyers, market reaction could be more positive.

Second is the progress of Blackwell chip capacity ramp-up. Morgan Stanley analysts stated that the market wants to see positive developments with Blackwell, as models trained with Blackwell chips could reignite expectations for future AI models. Weller believes that given strong demand for next-generation semiconductors, attention should be paid to whether the chip production and shipments meet expectations and whether there are signs of extended delivery cycles.

Third is the potential bottleneck issues related to memory chip and power supply shortages. Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore and his team noted that although shortages of related products could theoretically hinder development, current AI computing demand remains strong, and there is no evidence that such issues are impacting NVIDIA’s business.

Fourth is the trend in gross margin changes. Traders should watch whether NVIDIA’s management attributes margin pressures to temporary factors or structural issues. Weller pointed out that if profit margin outlooks fall short of market expectations, even if quarterly results beat forecasts, the stock could still be sold off. He expects NVIDIA’s stock reaction priorities to be: earnings guidance, Blackwell capacity ramp-up, and gross margin trajectory changes.