Global Headlines | US stocks close higher across the board, probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged rises to 97.2%

【U.S. Stock Indices】

On January 9th, Eastern Time (Friday), the three major U.S. stock indices closed higher across the board, with the S&P 500 up 0.65% at 6966.28 points; the Dow Jones up 0.48% at 49504.07 points; and the Nasdaq up 0.81% at 23671.35 points.

【U.S. Bonds】

On January 9th, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.18%, and the yield on the 2-year Treasury, most sensitive to Federal Reserve policy rates, was 3.54%.

【Popular U.S. Stocks】

Among popular stocks, Nvidia fell 0.12%, Google Class C rose 0.96%, Google Class A rose 0.96%, Apple increased 0.13%, Microsoft gained 0.25%, Amazon rose 0.43%, TSMC increased 1.77%, Meta rose 1.08%, Tesla gained 2.11%, Super Micro Semiconductor fell 0.74%, and Intel surged 10.80%.

【Global Indices】

【China Indices】

On January 9th, overnight Hang Seng Tech Index futures rose 0.19%, Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 1.30%, and FTSE China A50 Index increased 0.17%.

【Chinese Concept Stocks】

In popular Chinese concept stocks, Tencent Holdings (HK) fell 0.81%, Alibaba dropped 2.25%, Pinduoduo declined 0.86%, NetEase fell 1.89%, Ctrip decreased 1.51%, Baidu rose 1.61%, Xpeng Motors dropped 2.46%, Li Auto declined 0.95%, and NIO fell 1.90%.

【Forex and Commodities】

【Global News】

Trump: U.S. Government Shutdown Possible Again on January 30

Trump stated that a U.S. government shutdown could occur again on January 30. (Cailian Press)

OpenAI and SoftBank Invest $1 Billion in SB Energy

OpenAI and SoftBank have invested $1 billion in SB Energy. (Sina Finance)

Fed’s Bostic: Inflation Still One of the Main Challenges for the U.S. Economy

Fed’s Bostic said high-end consumers continue to spend, and the U.S. economy remains resilient; in many ways, the U.S. has long had a K-shaped economy. He emphasized that inflation remains one of the main challenges, and controlling inflation is very important; inflation is far above the 2% target, and efforts are needed to reduce it. The Fed’s responsibilities and inflation targets are somewhat at odds. The labor market has cooled but it’s unclear if it has fundamentally weakened.

Morgan Stanley Forecasts the Fed Will Cut Rates by 25 Basis Points in June and September

Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in June and September, earlier predictions were for rate cuts in January and April. (Cailian Press)

Citi Forecasts the Fed Will Cut Rates by 25 Basis Points in March, July, and September

Citi expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in March, July, and September, earlier predictions were for rate cuts in January, March, and September. (Cailian Press)

Amazon Pharmacy to Sell Novo Nordisk Oral Weight Loss Drug

On January 9th, Amazon announced that Amazon Pharmacy, a full-service digital pharmacy, can deliver medications directly to customers’ homes. It now offers Wegovy, an oral GLP-1 weight management drug from Novo Nordisk, approved by the U.S. FDA. Eligible insurance customers pay $25 per month for a month’s supply, while cash-paying customers can purchase Wegovy starting at $149 per month. (Jiemian News)

After Non-Farm Payroll Data, Probability of No Rate Hike in January Rises to 97.2%

According to CME’s “FedWatch”: after the non-farm payroll data release, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January is 2.8% (previously 11.6%), and the probability of holding rates steady rises to 97.2% (previously 88.4%). The chance of a total 25 basis point cut by March is 32.3% (previously 35.8%), with a 66.8% chance of no change (previously 60.6%), and a 0.9% chance of a 50 basis point cut (previously 3.7%).

“Fed Whisperer” Nick Timiraos: Private Sector Employers Will Add an Average of 61,000 Jobs Per Month in 2025, the Weakest Growth Since the “Jobless Recovery” of 2003

Nick Timiraos, known as the “Fed Whisperer,” said that in 2025, private sector employers will add an average of 61,000 jobs per month, marking the weakest growth since the so-called “jobless recovery” of 2003.

Market Traders Expect Almost Zero Chance of a Rate Cut in January

Market traders expect the chance of a rate cut in January to be nearly zero.

Traders Still Expect the Fed to Cut Rates by About 50 Basis Points by 2026

Following the U.S. Labor Department’s report of declining unemployment, traders are betting on the Fed pausing rate cuts. They still expect the Fed to cut rates by approximately 50 basis points cumulatively by 2026.