Breakfast News: Futures Rocked By $100 Oil Shock

Breakfast News: Futures Rocked By $100 Oil Shock

March 9, 2026

Source: Image created by Jester AI.

1. Futures Slip as Oil Surges Above $100

The conflict in Iran continues to drive markets down, as the S&P 500 closed Friday with a 2% loss on the week. The Nasdaq got off a little easier, down 1.2%. Following on from a battering for Asian markets – which saw the Japanese Nikkei slump 7% at one point Monday – S&P 500 futures fell 1.3% this morning, with Nasdaq futures down 1.5%.

• WTI peaks above $119: West Texas Intermediate crude settled back to $103 this morning after crossing $100 for the first time since 2022. The G7 is set to discuss a possible release of International Energy Agency reserves to ease the pressure, reports the Financial Times.
• “Shocks to the system are nothing new”: Fool contributing analyst Jim Mueller notes there’s no way we can predict coming market turmoil and we just can’t time future events. The solution? “Take a longer view of time. Over history, the stock market has gone up and to the right. Over time.”

2. Oil Just Blew Past $100. Here’s What I’m Watching

Nick Sciple

Here’s a sneak preview of the post, but click below to read more!

Last week, I wrote about the emerging U.S.-Iran confrontation and what it could mean for markets. The Strait of Hormuz was the pressure point to watch. That scenario is no longer hypothetical.

As of Sunday evening, WTI (the U.S. oil benchmark) and Brent (the European benchmark) oil are both roughly $109 per barrel … WTI surged over 17% Sunday alone, on top of a 36% weekly gain, the biggest in futures history … Gas has jumped 47 cents to $3.45 nationally, while diesel is up 83 cents to $4.60, according to AAA.

The administration is betting this is a short-term disruption with a long-term payoff. Maybe they’re right. But $100 oil, wells being shut in that may never come back, and Dow futures cratering on a Sunday evening tells you the market sees real risk this gets worse before it gets better. Stay informed, stay patient, stay calm, and stay Foolish.

3. The Pick of the Week’s Stock Advisor Earnings

• Casey’s General Stores (CASY 0.99%) reports its third quarter after today’s market close, followed by a conference call tomorrow morning. The Team Rule Breakers recommendation posted a 14% revenue rise in Q2, and predicted an EBITDA rise of 15% to 17% for fiscal 2026.
• Adobe (ADBE +0.63%) is set to open fiscal 2026 with Q1 results Thursday. Despite posting a 14% earnings rise in Q4 to close a strong fiscal 2025, the stock – also recommended by Team RB – has been under pressure from AI competition and is down 35% in the past 12 months.
• Ulta Beauty (ULTA 1.00%) brings us Q4 earnings Thursday. Ulta – an SA rec by Team Hidden Gems – made a stunning comeback in 2025 under new CEO Kecia Steelman. Watch for updates on planned openings in the Middle East this month.

4. Key Economic Updates Due This Week

February’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) print comes our way Wednesday, expected to edge up a little – reaching 0.3%, from 0.2% in January. The year-over-year (YoY) figure is predicted to stay unchanged at 2.4%. Analysts have core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, unchanged at 2.5% YoY.

• Trade deficit to narrow to $65.3 billion?: January’s U.S. trade deficit, updated Thursday, looks set to come in below the previous month’s $70.3 billion shortfall – as the long-term impact of the Supreme Court’s tariffs ruling remains uncertain.
• Last PCE print before Fed meeting: Friday brings us the delayed January Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) update. The core figure – the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure – is expected to inch up to 3.1%, from 3%. The next rate-setting meeting is next Wednesday, March 18.

5. Your Take

No two investors share the same psychological response to market turbulence. Risk tolerance is as unique as a fingerprint.

How do you balance the advice to “stay calm and stay Foolish” with the instinct to act when markets are moving dramatically? What helps you maintain discipline?

Discuss with friends and family, or become a member to hear what your fellow Fools are saying!