MVC Market Insights (3.9-3.15)

Recent tensions in the Middle East have intensified, and market pricing of the Iran conflict is still evolving. Our assessment is that the U.S. is unlikely to deploy ground troops; internally, Iran is more likely to leverage external pressure to legitimize a reshuffle of its political structure. If oil prices rise by 20%, it will trigger a policy response from the U.S., which remains manageable overall. Before oil prices fall below $100, geopolitical risk premiums will continue to disturb market sentiment. However, the long-term trend—especially for commodities and precious metals—remains upward, and we plan to increase positions on dips.

Against this backdrop, our core focus is on three main themes:

1. Commodities and Resources. Geopolitical risks combined with a restructuring of the credit system support gold staying at high levels. We remain optimistic about the precious metals sector and have gradually positioned in gold mining-related assets. Copper, as a medium- to long-term allocation, will benefit from future liquidity expansion cycles, and we are monitoring entry points.

2. Digital Assets. Bitcoin has recently outperformed stocks, but no clear trend reversal signals have appeared yet. We maintain a cautious stance, primarily observing to control drawdowns, awaiting confirmation of a turning point in dollar liquidity.

3. AI and Technology. Currently, the market’s valuation of leading AI companies is quite full, making it difficult to find excess consensus in the short term. Future movements will heavily depend on changes in the global liquidity environment.

Overall, we continue to focus on the two core judgments: “Reconstruction of the traditional credit system” and “East rises, West declines.” We emphasize resource assets denominated in RMB, seeking resilience within certainty.