Rapeseed imports are gradually resuming, and oil mills are increasing their forward-month transactions.

This week, geopolitical macro factors dominated market trends, with vegetable oil and meal prices following the upward trend. Currently, ICE rapeseed and domestic markets are both strengthening, but European rapeseed reacts relatively calmly, while Australian rapeseed prices have slightly declined. The global vegetable oil market shows uneven hot and cold spots. Moving forward, attention should be paid to China’s actual rapeseed procurement volume and port arrival times, as well as recent quotes and transaction activity from oil mills. Although the new rapeseed season is expected to see increased planting, ICE rapeseed remains relatively strong. This week, Statistics Canada announced that rapeseed planting area is approximately 21.8 million acres, up 0.8% year-on-year but below the market consensus of 22.3 million acres. We believe there is still a considerable time before actual sowing begins, and the implementation of U.S. biodiesel policies may continue to influence rapeseed planting intentions. Overall, under the influence of macro geopolitical factors, vegetable oil and meal prices are expected to remain bullish. In the later stages, attention should be paid to actual changes in shipping costs. We expect the domestic bullish sentiment for Canadian rapeseed to persist until U.S. biodiesel policy details are disclosed. Until then, rapeseed costs will remain high unless domestic Australian rapeseed commercial procurement relaxes beyond expectations, in which case China’s rapeseed crushing margins will be relatively limited.