Setting the tone for the 2026 real estate market: shifting from "stabilizing after decline" to "focusing on stability," and revisiting "de-stocking" after ten years

On the morning of March 5th, Premier Li Qiang reviewed the work in 2025 during the government work report, summarizing real estate as: continue efforts to stabilize the housing market, reasonably control the supply of new land for real estate, implement city-specific policies to reduce restrictive measures, lower the interest rate for individual housing provident fund loans, and fully complete the “guarantee delivery” task.

For the 2026 real estate work, the government work report proposed focusing on stabilizing the real estate market. Implement city-specific policies to control growth, reduce inventory, optimize supply, explore multiple channels to activate existing commercial housing stock, and encourage acquisition of existing properties mainly for affordable housing. Deepen reforms of the housing provident fund system. Optimize the supply of affordable housing and accelerate the renovation of old and dilapidated houses. Promote the orderly construction of safe, comfortable, green, and smart “good houses,” implement quality improvement projects for housing and property management. Further leverage the whitelist system for “guarantee delivery” to prevent debt default risks. Deepen the development of new real estate models through foundational systems and supporting policies.

CRIC Research Institute states that the main content regarding real estate in this year’s government work report is placed under the key tasks of “greater efforts to safeguard and improve people’s livelihood” and “strengthening risk prevention, resolution, and safety capacity in key areas,” highlighting the importance of real estate in protecting livelihoods and preventing risks. Notably, the phrase “safeguard and improve people’s livelihood” is positioned earlier, with the key phrase changed from “increase” to “greater efforts,” possibly indicating that policy efforts in 2026 will be further intensified.

Controlling growth and reducing inventory simultaneously: solving the new challenge of “de-stocking” in real estate

The tone for 2026 real estate work in the government work report has shifted from last year’s “continue efforts to promote the stabilization and recovery of the real estate market” to “focus on stabilizing the real estate market.”

CRIC Research Institute analyzes that this adjustment indicates that “stabilizing the housing market” is currently of great importance in risk prevention and resolution. Stabilizing the market is crucial for market confidence, along with expectations stabilization. 2026 marks the beginning of the “14th Five-Year Plan,” with long-term high-quality development goals, making market stability vital for sustainable growth. Only with a stable market can high-quality development be built on a solid foundation.

Regarding the report’s mention of “city-specific policies to control growth, reduce inventory, and optimize supply,” CRIC states that after ten years, the report again mentions “de-stocking” in real estate, but unlike the previous round, this de-stocking involves both new and second-hand homes, with targeted policies expected. Currently, new home inventory remains high; controlling land supply and clearing inventory are key measures to directly improve supply-demand relations and restore market expectations.

Additionally, for the first time this year, the report proposes “exploring multiple channels to activate existing commercial housing,” explicitly encouraging “acquisition of existing properties mainly for affordable housing.” CRIC believes that emphasizing “encouragement” suggests that local governments will take the lead in acquiring existing properties, and besides purchasing new homes, acquiring second-hand homes will also be an important measure for de-stocking and activating inventory.

Speeding up the implementation of “good house” standards and targeted reform of the provident fund

The construction of “good houses” is a key approach to optimizing supply. This year, the government work report again emphasizes “good houses,” focusing on “orderly promotion.” After the implementation of the “Residential Project Standards” in May 2025, many regions have introduced “good house” standards. It is expected that this year will further promote the implementation of “good house” standards, with more cities developing demonstration projects. Meanwhile, balancing “good house” construction with sales of existing housing and market expectation changes will be a coordinated consideration in local policies.

It is noteworthy that this year’s report also mentions “deepening reforms of the housing provident fund system,” continuing the wording from the Central Economic Work Conference, making it one of the tasks for 2026. According to CRIC monitoring, since 2022, local policies on the provident fund have become important tools to promote housing demand. Over 300 policies were issued nationwide in 2025. Since 2026, provinces like Fujian, Yinchuan, and Wuhan have continuously optimized provident fund policies to precisely support residents’ housing consumption, including increasing loan limits, expanding withdrawal support, and relaxing restrictions on cross-region purchases. For example, Fujian explicitly supports renovation withdrawals, parking space purchases, and urban renewal withdrawals.

CRIC expects that in 2026, provident fund policies will become more detailed, with flexible adjustments to contribution policies (expanding coverage), expanding the scope of fund use, and improving fund utilization efficiency, further enhancing the role of the provident fund in benefiting people’s livelihoods and stabilizing the market.

The new model of real estate development, introduced last year as “building relevant foundational systems in an orderly manner and accelerating the construction of new development models,” has been adjusted this year to “deeply promote the construction of foundational systems and supporting policies for new real estate development models.” CRIC states this indicates that the construction of new real estate models has entered a stage of in-depth promotion, with a greater focus on foundational systems and supporting policies. It is expected that in 2026, regions will further explore the development of foundational real estate systems.

Additionally, the report re-emphasizes the “white list” system, highlighting its role in further strengthening the “guarantee delivery” whitelist system to prevent debt default risks.

Targeted policy efforts: initiating a “refined” era of housing security for first-time married families with multiple children

In the section on “greater efforts to safeguard and improve people’s livelihood,” the report mentions “strengthening housing security for first-time married and newly parented families, supporting multi-child families to improve housing needs.”

CRIC analyzes that placing housing demand policies under the “greater efforts to safeguard and improve people’s livelihood” task makes the support more targeted. Housing security for first-time married and newly parented families, and improving housing for multi-child families, are key focuses. It is expected that demand-side policies in 2026 will become more refined and precise, with integration of housing and population policies as an important direction.

Recently, many regions have optimized housing policies, reflecting a trend toward policy refinement. For example, Nanchong in Sichuan Province was the first in the province to incorporate marriage support into policy systems, offering a one-time financial subsidy of 1% of the loan amount for couples registering their marriage for the first time within the city, with a maximum subsidy of 200,000 yuan.

Regarding “strengthening housing security for first-time married and newly parented families,” Yan Yuejin, Deputy Director of Shanghai E-House Research Institute, suggests establishing a priority mechanism for affordable housing, strengthening financial and provident fund support, and exploring “rent-first, buy-later” models. Meanwhile, continuously implementing household registration and other support measures to enable first-time married families to enjoy streamlined services for settlement, housing, childbirth, employment, and education—truly making small families happy and supporting stable family life.

Urban renewal “three-step leap”: moving toward a connotative development centered on “quality”

The report states that this year, urban renewal will be promoted with high quality, steadily transforming old urban neighborhoods and villages. It emphasizes activating and utilizing stock land and idle housing facilities, strengthening infrastructure safety projects, improving fire prevention and rescue capabilities in high-rise buildings, and building innovative industrial and commercial communities. It also aims to promote smart and refined urban governance and build a modern “people’s city.”

Crui Ji, Executive Deputy Director of Shanghai E-House Research Institute, believes that the stage characteristics of urban development determine the core mission of urban renewal. Analyzing the changes in urban renewal statements from 2024 to 2026, its strategic positioning has always resonated with China’s urbanization process, showing a clear three-stage evolution.

2024 is the year of urban renewal’s livelihood breakthrough, with the overall tone of “steady implementation of urban renewal actions,” focusing on addressing urgent livelihood issues and improving residential quality—fundamental questions of “whether there is” in urban living. 2025 is the year of systematic expansion, with the core being “continuing to promote urban renewal and renovation of old neighborhoods,” further expanding the scope and connotation of urban renewal, aiming to fill gaps in urban development systems.

2026 is the year of qualitative leap in urban renewal. The report places urban renewal within the top-level framework of “adhering to connotative urban development and optimizing the modern urban system,” with “high-quality urban renewal” as the guiding principle. It continues to focus on renovating old neighborhoods and villages, but also emphasizes activating stock assets, ultimately aiming to build a modern “people’s city.” Crui Ji states that this fundamental upgrade signifies that urban renewal is no longer just a specific project under new urbanization but a core carrier for transforming urban development models and constructing modern urban systems—crucial for solving the fundamental question of “how good” high-quality urban development is.

Regarding the mention of “activating and utilizing stock land and idle housing facilities,” Li Yujia, Chief Researcher at Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, states that as real estate enters the stock era, urban growth drivers shift from incremental expansion to quality and efficiency improvements of existing stock. Considering supply-demand relations, resource utilization, cultural preservation, and development of cultural, tourism, and creative industries, activating stock land and idle facilities will become a new model for future real estate and urban development.

“First, future affordable housing development, including public rental housing, rent-to-own, and company or student dormitories, can be addressed through stock activation; second, regions can develop cultural tourism, cultural and creative industries, and new dining formats by repurposing old buildings like train stations, old factories, abandoned hotels, and vacant commercial offices; third, urban land development should prioritize already transferred or undeveloped idle land,” Li Yujia added.