The "Little Spring" of the real estate market is worth looking forward to: Beijing renters enter the market, and the prices of school district houses hit bottom and stabilize

With the Two Sessions underway and the government’s work report emphasizing “stabilizing the housing market,” Beijing’s real estate market is gradually emerging from its earlier adjustment phase, showing signs of a gentle recovery.

A newly opened model unit in Tongzhou District, Beijing, is attracting a surge of visitors. Sales consultant Zhang Xin (pseudonym) said, “On the first day, we had over 600 groups of clients, and even more on the weekend. Viewing appointments need to be scheduled in advance.” He revealed that the project is awaiting its pre-sale permit and is expected to launch during the “Golden March and Silver April” spring season. Despite already offering significant opening discounts, the unexpectedly high enthusiasm has prompted developers to reconsider the size of their discounts.

“Prices hit bottom at the end of December last year and have now stabilized,” said Zhang Peng (pseudonym), a broker in Zhongguancun, Lianjia. He clearly senses a shift in market sentiment—owners are no longer rushing to lower prices as they did earlier, some homebuyers are no longer waiting to sell their current homes before buying new ones, and even renters are starting to enter the market.

During visits, Xin地产 found that the housing demand accumulated during the Spring Festival holiday is gradually being released. Currently, new projects in Haidian, Changping, Fengtai, and Tongzhou are preparing for the “Golden March and Silver April” launch period. Promotions, model home openings, and other activities are in full swing, aiming to seize this spring home-buying window.

Guo Yi, Chief Analyst at Heshuo Agency, said that the market trend is closely linked to policy environment. This year’s Two Sessions proposed “stabilizing the housing market,” which marks a significant change from last year’s focus on “promoting the market to stop falling and stabilize.” From a market performance perspective, the work of halting the decline is largely complete, and the market is now entering a bottoming-out and stabilization phase.

Data shows that since the new policies introduced last August, Beijing’s second-hand housing transactions have approached 100,000 units. This wave of activity has released a large amount of replacement demand, with many owners selling their current homes to buy new or improved second-hand properties, creating a healthy “sell old, buy new” cycle. In January alone, second-hand transactions in Beijing reached 15,000 units, continuing the upward trend. Guo Yi pointed out that policy effects are still unfolding, and the markets for both second-hand and new homes are expected to continue rising, making this year’s “small spring” in the housing market worth looking forward to.

Market Segmentation: Suburban Small Three-Bedroom Units Become Traffic Drivers

Recently, 58.com and Anjuke released the “Spring Festival Home Buying Survey—Housing Trends Outlook for 2026” (hereafter “Survey”), which analyzed the housing consumption tendencies, key decision factors, and the impact of promotional policies among prospective buyers in first- and new-first-tier cities.

The survey shows that 60.7% of respondents already have clear housing needs. The role of discounts is to “accelerate the process,” not to “create demand.” About 30% of homebuyers prioritize “value,” focusing more on location, school districts, medical facilities, commercial areas, and core product features like layout and quality. They also consider policy windows and housing price trends when timing their purchases, and are unlikely to compromise on their housing needs due to short-term discounts.

Data indicates that in January and February this year, high-end improvement projects like China Overseas Lijinfu in Fengtai’s Southwest Third Ring ranked first in new home sales in the area. At the project site, the tea break area was nearly full, with many buyers holding floor plans and engaging in discussions. One group had already entered the signing process, with staff assisting in verifying details. Around the model, more than ten groups of visitors were viewing, while sales staff explained the project.

A sales representative pointed to the model on the sand table, saying, “The surrounding amenities are mature. We offer 130, 136, and 165 square meter pure improvement four-bedroom units with over 90% efficiency, recorded prices of 113,000 to 120,000 yuan per square meter, with opening prices around 110,000. Considering the high efficiency, the actual inside price is about 100,000 per square meter. Plus, there are extra Spring Festival discounts, so transaction prices can reach around 100,000 yuan per square meter.” The main target buyers are those seeking asset upgrades and replacements from Xicheng and Fengtai, as well as commuters working in Lizhe and Financial Street areas.

A prospective buyer interested in purchasing said they had been comparing new and second-hand homes for some time and ultimately believed that new homes offer a better living experience. After considering developer reputation, surrounding amenities, regional interface, and commuting conditions, they finalized their decision.

Besides high-end projects with good value, some low-priced suburban small three-bedroom units are also attracting buyers. For example, the Chang’an Huaxi Fu Jin’an project in Mentougou has an average sale price of about 44,000 yuan per square meter. According to sales staff, within less than two and a half months of opening, over 200 units had been signed, with 78 and 96 square meter units selling the fastest; only a few 78-square-meter units remain.

Industry analysts believe that in Beijing, core districts like Chaoyang and Fengtai, with their comprehensive amenities, prime locations, and quality developments, maintain steady sales. Suburban areas such as Tongzhou, Shunyi, and Changping, with their livable environments and market-aligned products, are favored by first-time and upgrading buyers, with market activity steadily increasing.

Second-Hand Housing Listings Plummet, School District Homes Drive Transactions

Market recovery signals are more evident in the second-hand housing sector.

According to Beijing Lianjia Research Institute, in January and February, the transaction volume of second-hand residential units exceeded 23,000, surpassing the ten-year average of about 21,000 units for the same period by over 2,000 units, with an almost 2.4% increase in average transaction price.

Moreover, a second-hand broker at Beike said that the number of second-hand listings in Beijing has fallen from over 200,000 to 140,000 units.

The market is changing. The previous peak in transactions before the Spring Festival cleared many earnest sellers’ listings. After the holiday, owners’ attitudes stabilized, and price negotiations became tighter. Several brokers noted that fewer owners are willing to lower prices now compared to before, and the gap between listing prices and actual transaction prices is narrowing.

“Currently, the listing prices and transaction prices are generally close. Slight price reductions are quickly accepted by buyers,” said a Beike broker. “When a high-value, well-priced property is listed with a price difference of 30,000 to 50,000 yuan from the transaction price, it often attracts three or four interested buyers simultaneously. These properties are closely watched by multiple prospective buyers, and as soon as the price softens, queues form for negotiations. If you’re a bit slow, you might miss out. That’s the current market situation.”

A broker in Mentougou cited an example: a three-bedroom, two-living-room unit at the Jidian Jindi Huachen community, once the most popular layout, was owned by a city resident who had left it vacant for sale. The listing price dropped from 6.6 million yuan in November 2025 to 6.3 million yuan in December, with few viewings.

However, in February, the situation changed. The broker explained that before the Spring Festival, multiple groups scheduled viewings daily, and now the property is in the negotiation stage.

Notably, the school district housing market is also quietly shifting. A long-time agent specializing in school district homes in Zhongguancun said that properties with confirmed school admissions are more popular and maintain higher prices, while those with occupied school placements see lower transaction prices due to reduced demand. For example, a property worth around 5 million yuan with an available school seat might be priced up to 200,000 yuan lower if the seat is already taken.

Beike data shows that in key communities within Zhongguancun’s school district—such as Taiyangyuan, Zhichunli, Shuangyushu Dongli, and Qingyunbei—about 70 second-hand units changed hands, a slight increase of three units compared to the same period last year.

It’s also worth noting that the market prices for school district homes have stopped declining since September last year. In September, the average price was about 82,800 yuan per square meter, but it gradually fell to 70,600 yuan by December. Since January 2026, prices have begun to rise again.

Guo Yi believes that, in the second-hand market, the primary driver before the Spring Festival was school district demand, which significantly boosted transactions. After the holiday, as prices bottom out, affordable, small, well-located homes continue to account for a high proportion of sales. This indicates that current buyers are mainly price-sensitive first-time families who value mature neighborhoods.